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Eagles a Slim Underdog vs. Packers, on the Not-Yet Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field
By Joe Tansey
Published:
As of publication on Monday afternoon, the Birds are a one-point underdog and -110 on the money line at BetMGM. They’re in Green Bay to play the Packers on the not-yet frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
I’d be willing to make the argument, and quite easily, that the Birds should be a strong favorite, not just as the top team in the NFC, but because of who is available.
Green Bay is coming off a home loss to Carolina in which they lost tight end Tucker Kraft to a leg injury. Kraft leads the Packers in receiving yards. That leaves only Romeo Doubs as a consistent threat in the passing game. Christian Watson is often hurt and used more as a deep threat than anything. Kraft’s backup, Luke Musgrave, only has nine catches this season.
Meanwhile, the Eagles get A.J. Brown back to pair with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Saquon Barkley is coming off his best game of the season and the Birds are rested off the bye.
The Eagles are 4-0 off the bye in the Nick Sirianni era. The scores of those games were 27-17, 35-13, 21-17 and 20-16. Even though the Eagles won those games, there weren’t a ton of points scored. Remember last year’s near-debacle against the Browns.
The lowerish-scoring trend off the bye under Siranni, Green Bay’s first full game without Kraft, and the stats put up by the Packers passing defense (they’ve allowed under 250 passing yards in four straight games) leans the game toward the Under 45.5.
SPORTSBOOK
For PA sports betting, and NJ betting apps, I would look toward rushing if you’re betting player props. The Packers just gave up 163 rushing yards to the Panthers. The Birds allowed six opponents to run for 100+ yards. It’s worth noting they held the Vikings and Giants under 100 rushing yards, but both of those teams also dealt with injuries.
Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs are the three most bet players for touchdown props at BetMGM. I would use BetMGM’s Pro Football SGP Odds Boost Token to put all three in a SGP at +650 before the boost.
Hurts being +100 to score a touchdown is a steal given the prices we’ve seen throughout the season. The same can be said about Barkley at +105.
Barkley’s rush-yard prop sits at Over/Under 77.5 at bet365. Jacobs is at O/U 69.5 and Hurts is at O/U 29.5.
I’d combine Barkley 70+ rush yards, Jacobs 60+ rush yards and Hurts 30+ rush yards together for bet365’s 50 percent boost. That SGP sits at +420 before the boost.
I’d even run with Barkley 70+ yards and Jacobs 60+ yards together at +160 because of how the game script may play out.
Kinkead: Tucker Kraft is a huge loss. Feels like Eagles straight-up imo:
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.