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Eagles, Phillies, Union, Penn State, and UFC: Five Weekend Bets that Definitely Aren’t Going to Miss
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Welcome to another edition of the weekend bets column! I didn’t tally up last week’s results, but I know they were bad. The Union hammered D.C. but the Penn State/Oregon game going to overtime killed the under by a half point, so we take an L and move on to this week:
Eagles vs. Broncos
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer failed to hit for the first time in seven games. That means the running total is 16 hits over the last 23 games that Hurts has started and finished, which is a 69.5% rate. That’s good enough to play it again this weekend at -130. Denver has been very good in the red zone defensively, allowing just two rushing touchdowns this season, but on the other side, the Eagles have scored a touchdown on every single red zone trip this season. They are at 100% and the next best team is the Bengals at 66.7%.
Phillies vs. Dodgers
Most postseason baseball games are cagey, low-scoring affairs. That’s especially true when the aces are going against each other in a Game 1, in this case Cristopher Sanchez and Shohei Ohtani on Saturday evening.
We’ve talked this week about how the Dodgers bullpen kind of stinks, and we saw it on display when the Phillies took 2 of 3 out in LA a few weeks back.
If you believe this is a game the Phillies break open late, then take a look at these BetMGM lines:
- no run 1st inning (-140)
- first five innings under 3.5 runs (-102)
- Ohtani over 14.5 outs (-145)
You can mix and match various unders for first half of the game if you think that Ohtani gets through five or six before the Dodgers go to the bullpen. Mix in the Phillies moneyline at -125 if you want some extra juice.
Otherwise, a straight bet on the first five under is solid:
Union vs. New York City FC
The Union can win the Supporters Shield with a victory over visiting NYC FC on Saturday evening. It would be the second trophy to enter the display case.
This is shaping up as an immovable object vs. unstoppable force kind of thing. On one hand, the Union have 11 wins and just one home loss this season. On the other hand, NYC has won four road games in a row and is playing great soccer at the moment.
At face value, you’d think the raucous home environment will propel the Union to the Shield, so you grab the U’s moneyline at -115. If you think NYC nicks at least a goal, both teams to score at -165 is decent enough value.
Penn State at UCLA
This Bruins team is 0-4 and absolutely stinks. James Franklin, meantime, lost another big game against a ranked team. This is the typical spot where the Lions rebound with a thumping against lesser competition, like the Washington and SMU games from last season.
Give me Penn State -24.5.
UFC 320
Great card. Underrated card, actually, with local product Joe Pyfer starting off the pay-per-view.
The pick here is Merab Dvalishvili over Cory Sandhagen, but at -400, the odds stink. It’s just hard to see Sandhagen picking apart Merab at range and fending off five rounds of takedown attempts. How does he outwork the guy with the best cardio in the promotion? He doesn’t. He tries to use his length and size to catch Merab as he attempts to close the distance.
There are a few ways to parlay Merab moneyline into something worth betting. You can take Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree to not go the distance at -275, which gets you to -142. That one will likely be a war.
Alternatively, you can parlay Merab moneyline with the main event, Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira, to go over 1.5 rounds at -375. That gets you a -158 parlay. Big Ank and Pereira went five rounds back in March.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com