Eagles

Eagles vs. 49ers: Two Very Obvious Matchups Will Determine the Outcome of this Playoff Game

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Jan 7th, 2026 · 12:03 PM EST

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We’ve turned the page from Sunday’s loss and we’re moving on from Tanner McKee talk and the unending arguments over whether or not Nick Sirianni made the right decision to rest the starters in Week 18.

Now begins the postseason, with a visit from the 12-5 San Francisco 49ers.

The two key matchups defining this game are so obvious that they jump off the page and smack you right across the face:

1) Elite Eagles secondary vs. Elite Niners passing attack

Birds fans are in consensus that if the team goes on a repeat Super Bowl run, it will be because of Vic Fangio’s defense, specifically a defensive backfield that finished top 10 in almost every meaningful statistical category.

This is a unit that allowed a 56.8 completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, which is the lowest in the NFL. It conceded a league-low 14 touchdown passes and a 75.4 passer rating, which was second-lowest. They conceded 189.8 passing yards per game (8th fewest) and just 309 completions all season long (4th fewest)

On the flipside, San Fran’s passing offense was just as good. Between Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, the Niners logged:

• 33 passing TDs (4th)
• a 69.3 completion percentage (3rd)
• 244.5 yards per game (4th)
• a 98.8 passer rating (6th)
• 27 sacks (tied for 5th fewest)

Notable is that Purdy and Jones did throw 16 interceptions this year, which was sixth-most. They also fumbled the ball seven times. That’s why their -6 turnover differential is 26th out of 32 teams. The Eagles weren’t a ball hawking team as much as they tackled and covered well, but 12 picks and 9 fumble recoveries were both in the top half for takeaways, so there’s the potential here for a key turnover to swing the game.

San Francisco’s yards-per-attempt and yards-per-completion aren’t particularly high, but that’s a number skewed because of Christian McCaffrey’s heavy receiving volume. He caught 102 of his 129 targets for an average of 2.0 air yards per attempt. That resulted in 720 yards after catch, which was second only to Bijan Robinson in 2025.

So the key there is pretty obvious. Fly to the ball and make these open field tackles to limit McCaffrey’s damage. Stay disciplined and focused when Kyle Shanahan comes out with his typical backfield motion and misdirection. Seattle did a good job of this while pressuring Purdy and forcing him out of the pocket in Week 18, which sped up the San Fran offense and kept them out of sorts.

The rest of the Niners’ skill players are just okay. Jauan Jennings caught 55 passes for 643 yards and nine touchdowns. Kendrick Bourne and Ricky Pearsall were 500-yard players. George Kittle is George Kittle and the other tight end, Jake Tonges, caught five TD passes, but there’s no Puca Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba on this team. There’s no George Pickens or Ja’Marr Chase. You have to feel really good about the overall matchup with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean back there.

2) Eagles offense and coaching vs. itself

At some point in recent years, a portion of the Eagles’ fan base decided to become humongous pussies. “I don’t want to play the Rams, anybody but the Rams! I’m a big baby! Wah wah!“

Stuff like that. When did we get so soft? The Birds are the defending Super Bowl champs. The biggest threat to the Eagles is not the Niners, Rams, Seahawks, or any opposing team, the biggest threat to the Eagles is the Eagles.

The main problems they faced this year on offense were:

• inconsistent play calling, oftentimes with a conservative approach
• a banged-up and underperforming offensive line
• too many stuffed or ineffective runs (-162 stuffed yards was worst in the NFL)
• having to go 7.54 yards on average on third down (3rd longest number)
• the league’s highest three and out percentage (27.9%)
• not enough running from dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts (42 rush YPG last year, 26 rush YPG this year)
• the tush push rendered mostly ineffective over the season’s second half

We’ve watched it all year long. You take a new offensive coordinator and combine it with an underperforming line and that’s the catalyst for the inconsistency.

They’ve shown flashes of greatness, for instance, the first half in Dallas and some steady work in Minnesota and Tampa, but the ceiling has been as high as the floor has been low. They’re unbeatable if they play their offensive A game, which has largely eluded them. Perhaps the return of Lane Johnson and the heightened importance of the postseason serves to bring out the best in a highly-paid unit that has largely underwhelmed this year. They’ll be facing a bang-average San Francisco defense that is dealing with some injuries, especially at the linebacker position.

That is all. The path is very straightforward. If Vic Fangio’s defense shows up, like it always does, the Birds are in great shape. Then it just falls on the offense to not be totally incompetent and the Eagles should handle business on their home field.

A glance at PA sports betting apps and New Jersey sports betting apps has the Eagles holding around a -4.5 home favorite. The books believe in the home team, and we should too.