Eagles

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Trends, Picks, Predictions, and Key Matchups for Super Bowl 59 Rematch

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Sep 14th, 2025 · 9:00 AM EDT

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• The Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point road favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch.
• Line has flipped dramatically after opening with the Chiefs as 2-point favorites, indicating sharp money on Philadelphia.

Hello! And welcome to Week 2. It’s Eagles vs. Chiefs with a chance for the Birds to further dismantle the Chiefs dynasty after the Super Bowl 59 hammering. Nick Sirianni’s team is feeling good after a Week 1 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while the Chiefs are looking to avoid a rare 0-2 start after a frustrating loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

The quarterback duel pits two of the league’s best against each other. Jalen Hurts was ruthlessly efficient in Week 1, completing 82.6% of his passes for 152 yards while adding three rushing touchdowns to power the Eagles’ ground-and-pound attack. Across the field, Patrick Mahomes will be looking for a significant bounce-back performance. In the season opener, he completed 61.5% of his throws for 258 yards and a touchdown but also took two sacks as the offense struggled to find a consistent rhythm. This clash of titans will test Kansas City’s resilience against Philadelphia’s surging momentum.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. on Sunday, September 14th, at Arrowhead. The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX. Weather conditions are expected to be perfect for football, with sunny skies, a temperature of 88°F, and a light 7 mph wind.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Bet Type	Philadelphia Eagles	Kansas City Chiefs
Spread	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)
Moneyline	-120	+100
Total Points	Over 47.5 (-105)	Under 47.5 (-115)

Odds as of September 14, 2025 from ESPN Bet.

The odds paint a picture of a tightly contested game, with the Eagles installed as slight road favorites. The -120 moneyline implies a 54.6% probability of victory, while the Chiefs’ +100 odds suggest a 50% chance. After removing the vig, the market gives the Eagles a 52.2% chance to win.

Moneyline (vig-free): Philadelphia Eagles \ ~52.2%, Kansas City Chiefs \ ~47.8%

The Eagles have been a strong bet recently, covering the spread in five of their last seven games (71.4%). Conversely, the Chiefs have struggled to meet market expectations, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. The total of 47.5 points reflects the offensive firepower on both sides, though recent trends suggest value might lie with the under, especially considering the Chiefs’ offensive inconsistencies and Philadelphia’s defensive strength, bolstered by the return of Jalen Carter.

Odds Movement & Analysis

This betting line has seen one of the most significant shifts of the young season. The market opened with the Chiefs as 2-point home favorites, but a wave of money on the Birds has completely flipped the script, moving the line 3.5 points to make Philadelphia a 1.5-point favorite. The moneyline saw a similar reversal, opening at Chiefs -120 and now sitting at Eagles -120.

This dramatic movement is a direct reaction to Week 1’s results and narratives. The Chiefs’ loss, coupled with visible sideline frustration, has shaken market confidence. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ methodical win over a division rival, extending their 17-1 record over their last 18 games, has attracted sharp bettors. The total has also climbed two full points from its opening of 45.5 to 47.5, suggesting the public anticipates a high-scoring affair.

The current line presents a fascinating dynamic: the public is likely still backing a Mahomes bounce-back at home, while the sharp money that drove this line movement is firmly on the side of the in-form Eagles.

Injury Report

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Tanner McKee	QB	thumb	Questionable	Any limitation to Hurts would drastically alter the Eagles’ game plan.
Dallas Goedert	TE	knee	Out	Removes a key target for Hurts.
Will Shipley	RB	oblique	Out	Affects depth behind Saquon Barkley.
Jalen Royals	WR	knee	Out	Limits Mahomes’ options.
Xavier Worthy	WR	shoulder	doubtful	Further depletes a receiving corps that has struggled with consistency.

Key Matchups to Watch

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

Mahomes (61.5% comp, 258 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) faces an Eagles defense that held the Cowboys to just 188 passing yards in Week 1. While the Chiefs’ offensive line has been a fortress in recent years, early-season penalties and communication miscues could be exploited by Philadelphia’s aggressive pass rush. On the other side, Jalen Hurts (82.6% comp, 152 yds) will lean on his efficiency and mobility against a Chiefs defense that allowed 304 passing yards last week. Kansas City’s ability to contain Hurts in the pocket will be paramount.

Running Game vs Run Defense

The Eagles boast a formidable ground attack, led by Saquon Barkley and the dual-threat capability of Hurts. They bulldozed their way to 158 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. They face a Chiefs run defense that was respectable against the Chargers, allowing 90 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. The battle in the trenches will be fierce, as Philadelphia’s top-tier offensive line aims to create lanes against a stout Kansas City front seven led by Chris Jones and Nick Bolton.

Pass Catchers vs Secondary

This matchup is a story of alphas. The Eagles’ duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith presents a significant challenge for the Chiefs’ secondary. Their ability to win one-on-one matchups can stress any defense. For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce remains the focal point. The Eagles will likely employ bracket coverage to limit his impact, forcing Mahomes to rely on Marquise Brown and a less-proven receiving corps to create separation against a talented Philadelphia secondary.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

Philadelphia’s offensive line is widely considered one of the best in the NFL, a unit that excels in both pass protection and run blocking. They will face a tough test from a Chiefs pass rush featuring Jones and George Karlaftis. The more intriguing battle is on the other side, where the Chiefs’ offensive line, particularly right tackle Jawaan Taylor, struggled with penalties in Week 1. Whichever line can better control the line of scrimmage will give their quarterback a decisive advantage.

Passing Props

PLAYER	PASSING YARDS	PASSING TDs	COMPLETIONS	INTs
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	245.5 (O -115 | U -115)	1.5 (O -110 | U -119)	23.5 (O -114 | U -113)	0.5 (O -112 | U -119)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)	213.5 (O -122 | U -106)	1.5 (O +177 | U -236)	19.5 (O -129 | U -101)	0.5 (O +131 | U -177)

Mahomes’ passing yards line of 245.5 is right in line with his 2024 average (245.5 ypg) and below his Week 1 total of 258. The Eagles’ pass defense was stout in their opener, making the under an intriguing play. Hurts’ line is set at 213.5 yards, a number he easily surpassed on average last season (187.9 ypg) but failed to reach in a run-heavy Week 1 script. The plus-money odds on his over 1.5 passing TDs is tempting, especially considering the Super Bowl outcome, but the Eagles may opt for a running approach again.

Rushing & Receiving Props

PLAYER	RUSHING YARDS	RECEIVING YARDS	RECEPTIONS	ANYTIME TD
Saquon Barkley (PHI)	87.5 (O -113 | U -115)	16.5 (O -114 | U -115)	2.5 (O -131 | U -100)	Yes -155 | No +125
A.J. Brown (PHI)	N/A	73.5 (O -119 | U -112)	5.5 (O +114 | U -149)	Yes +190 | No -250
Isiah Pacheco (KC)	36.5 (O -115 | U -114)	8.5 (O -118 | U -111)	1.5 (O -139 | U +105)	Yes +180 | No -230
Travis Kelce (KC)	N/A	45.5 (O -115 | U -115)	5.5 (O +113 | U -149)	Yes +148 | No -190

NFL player props as of September 14th, 2025 from consensus data.

Barkley’s rushing line of 87.5 seems achievable against a Chiefs defense that can be vulnerable on the ground. A.J. Brown’s receiving yards at 73.5 is a key number to watch; he is the Eagles’ primary big-play threat and was only targeted once in Week 1.. For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce’s receptions line of 5.5 is notable. Given the injuries at wide receiver, he could see a massive target share, making the over at plus money (+113) an attractive option.

Picks & Prediction

This game is a fascinating clash of momentum versus historical dominance. Chiefs are in an almost unheard-of position: home underdogs coming off a loss. Patrick Mahomes has never started a season 0-2 in his professional career, and the Chiefs are an astounding 14-1 straight up in their last 15 games following a loss. Furthermore, they’re riding a 13-game home winning streak. These trends alone would typically make them an automatic bet.

However, the Birds are not a typical opponent. They’re on a 17-1 tear over their last 18 games and have been exceptional on the road, going 5-1 ATS in their last six away contests. The significant line movement in their favor suggests that sharp bettors believe the Chiefs’ Week 1 struggles – offensive line penalties, sideline turmoil, and an inability to sustain drives – are more than just a one-week anomaly. Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line and potent rushing attack featuring Hurts and Barkley is perfectly designed to exploit a Kansas City defense that can be soft on the edges. The Eagles can control the clock, limit Mahomes’ opportunities, and wear down the Chiefs’ front seven.

While a Mahomes bounce-back is always possible, the Eagles’ current form and schematic advantages are too compelling to ignore. They’ve covered in their last two meetings with the Chiefs and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of less than a touchdown. We’re riding with the Super Bowl champs to get it done once again.

Picks:

• Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (-105)
• Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
• Jalen Hurts Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Public Betting Splits

Early betting patterns indicate a classic sharp versus public divide. The public appears to be backing the Chiefs, banking on a bounce-back performance from Mahomes at home. However, the significant line movement from Chiefs -2 to Eagles -1.5 suggests that the majority of the money, particularly from respected bettors, has come in on Philadelphia, creating the current market price.

disclaimer: artificial intelligence helped with this story, but of course we did most of the work