Eagles

Eagles vs. Cowboys: Trends, Picks, Predictions, and Key Matchups for the NFL Season Opener

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Sep 4th, 2025 · 9:20 AM EDT

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• The Philadelphia Eagles open as heavy 8.5-point home favorites in this NFC East primetime showdown.
• Key betting trends highlight Philadelphia’s dominance at home, where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• Player props focus on Saquon Barkley’s rushing total against a Dallas run defense that has shown vulnerabilities.

The NFL season kicks off with a bang as one of the league’s most heated rivalries takes center stage. The Philadelphia Eagles, looking to build on a dominant Super Bowl campaign, host the Dallas Cowboys in a Thursday night clash with immediate NFC East implications. This matchup pits two of the conference’s premier quarterbacks against each other in a battle that could set the tone for the entire season.

Jalen Hurts returns to lead a potent Philadelphia offense after a stellar 2024 season where he posted a 103.7 passer rating with 18 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions, adding another 14 scores on the ground. Across the field, Dak Prescott aims to guide a re-tooling Cowboys squad. Last season, Prescott threw for 1,978 yards and 11 touchdowns pre-injury, as the Cowboys now operate without his former top pass rusher, Micah Parsons, anchoring the defensive side. With both teams eager to assert their dominance in the division, this opener promises fireworks from the opening snap.

This comprehensive preview will break down the odds, analyze key matchups, and provide data-driven predictions and player props to help you make informed wagers on this NFC East heavyweight fight.

The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles reignite their rivalry to open the season at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday, September 4, 2025, at 8:20 PM EDT, with the broadcast on NBC. The weather forecast calls for a clear evening with temperatures in the low 70s and minimal wind, creating perfect conditions for an offensive showcase. This game marks another chapter in a long-standing feud, with the Eagles looking to continue their recent home-field advantage in the series.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds

Bet Type	Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles
Spread	+8.5 (-115)	-8.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+320	-417
Total Points	Over 47.5 (-110)	Under 47.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 4th, 2025 from ESPNbetCom.

Moneyline (vig-free): Philadelphia Eagles \~77.9%, Dallas Cowboys \~22.1%

The odds paint a clear picture of the Eagles as substantial favorites on their home turf. The -417 moneyline implies a nearly 78% chance of victory for Philadelphia. The Eagles have been a machine at home, winning their last 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field and covering the spread in six of their last seven. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have struggled in this spot, posting a dismal 1-5 record as a touchdown-plus underdog in their last six opportunities.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds Movement & Analysis

This line has seen significant movement in favor of the home team. The Philadelphia Eagles opened as 7-point favorites, and the spread has since been bet up to -8.5. The moneyline has followed suit, moving from an opening of -303 to a steep -417. This shift indicates strong market confidence in Philadelphia’s ability to control this game from start to finish.

The primary driver behind this movement is likely the Eagles’ overwhelming home-field advantage and recent form. Philadelphia is on a 10-game winning streak at home as a favorite and has gone 16-1 straight up in their last 17 games overall. Conversely, the Cowboys have struggled under the bright lights, going 1-3 against the spread in their last four primetime games. The total has also ticked up a full point from 46.5 to 47.5, suggesting bettors anticipate a high-scoring affair, a trend supported by the fact that the over has hit in six of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Injury Report

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Tanner McKee	QB	thumb	Out	No impact as it pertains to the backup QB position. Jalen Hurts is fully healthy.
Perrion Winfrey	DT	back	Out	weakens depth on Cowboys defensive front

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles – Key Matchups to Watch

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

Jalen Hurts operates an offense that was second in the NFL in EPA/play last season. With a 68.7% completion rate and a 103.7 passer rating, he is a dual-threat nightmare. He faces a Cowboys secondary that allowed a 99.5 QB rating last season and is reintegrating Trevon Diggs after a major injury. While DaRon Bland is a proven ballhawk, the Eagles’ pass defense was elite, allowing the league’s lowest passing yards per game (174.2) and holding opposing QBs to an 82.5 rating.

Running Game vs Run Defense

This is where the Eagles hold a decisive edge. Philadelphia’s ground-and-pound attack, which averaged a staggering 179.3 yards per game last season, features leading rusher Saquon Barkley. They will attack a Dallas run defense that surrendered 137.1 yards per game in 2024 and ranked near the bottom in rush defense DVOA. The Eagles’ offensive line boasts a 72% run block win rate, which should create massive lanes for Barkley and Hurts to exploit.

Pass Catchers vs Secondary

The Cowboys’ strength lies in their receiving corps. CeeDee Lamb (31% target share) and George Pickens (15.3 aDOT) form a dynamic duo capable of challenging any secondary. They will test a young but talented Eagles’ defensive backfield featuring sophomores Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, with one of Kelee Ringo, Adoree Jackson, or Jakorian Bennett at CB2. For the Eagles, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are elite separators who will face a tough test against Diggs and Bland, making this matchup a potential game-changer.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

The Eagles’ offensive line remains a premier unit, allowing pressure at one of the lowest rates in the league. They will face a Cowboys pass rush attempting to redefine itself. Without their former top edge rusher, Dallas will rely on a committee approach and more blitzes under their new defensive scheme. If Dallas cannot generate consistent pressure on Hurts, their secondary will be left vulnerable against Philadelphia’s elite weapons.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Props

PLAYER	PASSING YARDS	PASSING TDs	COMPLETIONS	INTs
Dak Prescott (DAL)	249.5 (O -114 | U -114)	1.5 (O +109 | U -141)	23.5 (O -107 | U -121)	0.5 (O -152 | U +119)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)	213.5 (O -115 | U -115)	1.5 (O +117 | U -152)	18.5 (O -103 | U -128)	0.5 (O +138 | U -178)

Hurt’s line reflects a game script where the Eagles could lean heavily on their dominant rushing attack. Prescott’s line of 249.5 is slightly above his 2024 average, suggesting oddsmakers expect the Cowboys to be playing from behind and forced to air it out against a tough Eagles pass defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Rushing & Receiving Props

PLAYER	RUSHING YARDS	RECEIVING YARDS	RECEPTIONS	ANYTIME TD
Saquon Barkley (PHI)	93.5 (O -113 | U -114)	13.5 (O -120 | U -107)	1.5 (O -189 | U +148)	Yes -194 | No +150
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)	N/A	71.5 (O -121 | U -108)	6.5 (O +101 | U -132)	Yes +143 | No -185
A.J. Brown (PHI)	N/A	69.5 (O -121 | U -108)	4.5 (O -140 | U +108)	Yes +155 | No -200
George Pickens (DAL)	N/A	55.5 (O -116 | U -111)	4.5 (O +125 | U -161)	Yes +222 | No -300
DeVonta Smith (PHI)	N/A	53.5 (O -113 | U -115)	4.5 (O +103 | U -133)	Yes +180 | No -235

NFL player props as of September 3rd, from consensus data.

Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop of 93.5 yards is the standout here. Given the matchup against a porous Cowboys run defense and the Eagles’ elite offensive line, he is in a prime position to have a monster debut. CeeDee Lamb’s reception prop of 6.5 is also intriguing; as the Cowboys’ undisputed top target, he should see heavy volume, especially if Dallas is in comeback mode.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Picks & Prediction

This NFC East opener is poised to be a statement game, and all signs point to the Philadelphia Eagles making that statement loud and clear. The foundation for a Philadelphia victory is built in the trenches. Their offensive line is a dominant force that will pave the way for Saquon Barkley to gash a Dallas defense that struggled mightily against the run last season and has not shown significant improvement. This potent ground attack will control the clock and set up play-action opportunities for Jalen Hurts, who protects the ball and excels at creating explosive plays against vulnerable secondaries.

While the Cowboys possess the firepower at wide receiver to test the young Eagles’ defensive backs, their own offensive line is a concern against Philadelphia’s ferocious d line. The Eagles’ defense generated pressure on 37% of dropbacks last season and should be able to disrupt Dak Prescott’s timing. The historical trends are overwhelmingly in Philadelphia’s favor. The Eagles are 16-1 in their last 17 games and have won their last 11 at home. Furthermore, they are an astounding 6-1 ATS in their last seven home contests. The Cowboys simply have not performed in these big-game, primetime road spots, going 1-5 as a large underdog. Lay the points with the home team.

Picks:

• Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 (-105)
• Over 47.5 (-110)
• Saquon Barkley Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Recent History: Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

The recent history in this rivalry has been tilted in Philadelphia’s favor, particularly at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles swept the Cowboys last season and have won three straight against them at home. Dallas has struggled to find answers for Philadelphia’s physicality, going 1-3 straight up and ATS in the last four meetings. High-scoring affairs have been common, with the over cashing in six of the last eight matchups between these divisional foes, pointing towards another potential shootout on Thursday night.