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Obligatory “Has Saquon Barkley Regressed?” Blog Post
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Saquon Barkley had 22 rushing yards in Dallas on Sunday. That’s 2.2 yards per carry on 10 attempts. He caught seven passes for 52 yards and had some nice moments in that phase of the game, but also fumbled when the Eagles were driving in the fourth quarter, and then either slipped and/or couldn’t get the required burst to move the sticks before Jalen Hurts took the sack on 3rd and 2. That play in particular felt like something he would have converted in 2024.
Here are two clips that I think tell the story of what’s going on:
First clip: he’s trying too hard to make something happen in the open field, to the point where he tries his spin move toward the sideline. But he’s already at the boundary, so he ends up spinning in place, like a pirouette of sorts.
Second clip: he’s touched before he even gets into the backfield. Cam Jurgens can’t get anything on Quinnen Williams and the pulling Landon Dickerson more or less whiffs on James Houston. The blocking scheme is funky and the play goes nowhere.
So there are a couple of things going on, from our patented “more than one thing can be true” mindset:
1) The line just hasn’t been very good this year. Lane Johnson has been in and out of the lineup. Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens haven’t been healthy this entire season. Jurgens in particular has a few plays a game where he either whiffs or gets pushed back easily. It’s really noticeable, and makes you wonder if healthy Brett Toth should be out there. Jordan Mailata has had a down year, as confirmed by the eye test and his own words, and Tyler Steen has been good in pass protection but certainly isn’t Mekhi Becton in run blocking.
2) I think we’d all be naive to think that wear and tear from 2024 hasn’t played a role here. They were fully off in March, April, May, and June, but even with the world’s best strength, conditioning, medical, and recovery teams, coming back fresh after that many snaps, run blocking especially, isn’t easy.
3) Saquon, it seems, is pressing a bit because of this. Last year he was running at a 3.8 yards before contact rate, which has dropped almost in half this year. It means that in 2024 he was through the gaps without being touched, and then he’d hit the jets or break a tackle when facing a linebacker or safety. Now he’s being contacted early by DTs and ends and doesn’t have the oomph to get to the next level and hit the home runs he was hitting in 2024. You get the sense, like in that first clip above, that when he does get into space, he gets a little excited and is trying to make something special happen, but it’s just not coming off this year.
4) If the line is belabored by heavy snaps from 2024, then surely Saquon is the same. Running backs don’t have long shelf lives to begin with, and he ran the ball a career-high 345 times last year and caught 33 passes, then tacked on 91 carries and 13 receptions in the postseason. That’s wear and tear on top of some tough injuries from early in his career.
5) Tank Bigsby, on the other hand, is just sort of putting his head down and running north/south. It seems as though he’s being less deliberate and is pounding the holes he does see. Saquon runs with some more finesse. He’s a little more measured getting through the gaps, which haven’t been there this season. Tank is taking the square peg and shoving it into the round hole and it’s been working for him. He should see some more carries.
6) I still think there’s not enough variety in the running game. Too much inside zone from the shotgun. Not enough snaps from under center or play action or variety at all really. Certainly the run game suffers from the general malaise afflicting everyone on the offensive side.
Anyway, to answer the question –
Has Saquon regressed this year? Well, of course. He was never going to replicate what he did last season, and nobody thought it would happen again. But the averages are below his career numbers at this point, and it’s due to combination of factors, namely the offensive line just not being what it once was. That being said, it seems like he’s in his own head a bit when things do open up, and if he can show the same urgency that Bigsby is showing, knowing that the holes aren’t there this year, then he’s probably going to get better than 3.7 YPC on average.
That’s just what my eyeballs are telling me. Maybe you’re seeing something different.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com