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The Sportsbooks Benefited from the Lions Missing the Playoffs, and the Cowboys Going on a Fake Run Before Falling Apart
Published:
Our friends at BetMGM sent over some insights on Super Bowl futures:
Highest Ticket%
- Bills 10.3%
- Lions 8.5%
- Eagles 7.2%
Highest Handle%
- Bills 14.0%
- Eagles 8.6%
- Rams 8.3%
AFC
- Favorite: Broncos +300
- Highest Ticket%: Bills 15.7%
- Highest Handle%: Broncos 33.5%
- Biggest Liability: Broncos
NFC
- Favorite: Seahawks +260
- Highest Ticket%: Lions 17.7%
- Highest Handle%: Lions 20.9%
- Biggest Liability: Cowboys
Some interesting details in there, notably the Eagles having the third-highest ticket percentage and the second-highest handle. The Birds opened as a +650 Super Bowl favorite in the summer, then finished at +900 after winning three games in a row to bring them 11-5 and likely the NFC’s #3 seed. Buffalo’s odds have also dipped, opening at +750 and holding now at +1000, but with the Chiefs falling apart this season and a bunch of newcomers in the AFC, the handle and tickets are heavily leaning towards the Bills and Broncos. Nobody seems to believe in the Jaguars, Texans, or Chargers.
The books benefited big time with Detroit and Dallas missing out on the postseason. More than one-fifth of the total handle to win the NFC Championship Game was on the Lions, while the Cowboys had 4% of the tickets and 7.8% of the handle. It seems as though the general public really bought into that three-game winning streak that ultimately amounted to nothing.
As for the rest of the NFC, and making it to the Super Bowl, 13.5% of the handle is currently on the Niners and the Rams are third at 9.7%. The Eagles are pulling 9.8% of the tickets and 8.1% of the handle. The jumble of NFC West teams has diluted the ticket percentage there, but there’s more money coming in on San Francisco at longer odds than the Seahawks or Rams. Chicago does have 11.3% of the tickets right now, and 8% of the handle as they likely go in as the #2 seed. This is prime time for New Jersey and Pennsylvania sports betting with the NFL postseason and College Football Playoff upon us.
At Kalshi, meantime, they’ve got the NFC West teams currently out in front for Super Bowl chances. The Birds are given a 10% chance of winning:
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Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com