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3 Top Player Props for Phillies vs. Mets (April 6, 2021)

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: Apr 6th, 2021 · 2:04 PM EDT

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After a dramatic and bizarre comeback by the Phillies in the series opener against the Mets bullpen, they will put their perfect 4-0 record on the line tonight at Citizens Bank Park when they go up against Marcus Stroman.

Let’s take a look at the best Mets vs. Phillies player prop picks for this April 6, 2021 matchup.

Stroman will be opposed by new Phillies starting pitcher Chase Anderson. He comes to Philly after spending the shortened 2020 season with the Blue Jays.

The Phillies will hope for some innings from Anderson after yesterday’s starter, Matt Moore, failed to complete four innings, necessitating 90 pitches across five-plus innings of work by the bullpen.

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With the Phils looking to extend their undefeated run to begin the season and the Mets searching for their first win, both teams should be highly motivated here and it should create some solid wagering opportunities for bettors this evening.

Let’s discuss a couple of potential player prop bets worth a look with the following picks and predictions.

Phillies vs. Mets Player Props

J.T. Realmuto to Record a Hit (-200)

The Phillies managed to keep MLB’s best catcher in the City of Brotherly Love and it has paid dividends right out of the gate.

Realmuto has hit .385 in the early going, recording at least one hit in all three of his starts, including a pair of two-hit games against the Braves.

With his backup, Andrew Knapp, having played Sunday’s series finale against Atlanta, we can expect Realmuto behind the plate again tonight, especially with the afternoon game tomorrow and the off day coming on Thursday.

Realmuto has three hits in fivee career ABs against Stroman, and he has also traditionally started seasons quickly out of the gate.

In his last three full seasons, Realmuto has gone 69-218 (.317) before May, meaning his near .400 start to this season may not be an anomaly. With Bryce Harper getting on base at a .529 clip in the early going, Realmuto should see plenty of pitches hitting behind him tonight.

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Michael Conforto to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Conforto’s numbers against Anderson aren’t eye-popping, as he is just 3-for-13 (.213) with four strikeouts  lifetime against the righty.

But, for this prop, we simply care about who has the best chance of sending the ball over the wall, and Conforto fits the bill.

All three of his career hits against Anderson have been home runs. Now, that 21.3% percent chance we get from his 3-for-13 looks pretty good, eh?

Anderson has been generous with the home run ball in recent seasons. He gave up 11 round-trippers in 10 games during the shortened ‘20 season and has allowed 64 homers in 64 starts (and eight relief appearances) across the last three seasons.

Anderson also hasn’t topped 5 IP in a game since 2019 and hasn’t topped 6 IP since July 4, 2018, meaning more innings for the heavily-used Phillies bullpen is a possibility. If that happens, relievers like David Hale or Vince Velasquez could be forced into early action, presenting favorable matchups for Conforto.

Moreover, he should see plenty of pitches sandwiched between Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, so he provides good value for a potential home run in this one after hitting 27+ dingers in each of his last three full seasons and doing so at similar pace last summer.

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Chase Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)

While the Phillies could certainly use some innings from their fifth starter, it’s probably to expect anymore than five innings from Anderson tonight.

After all, he hasn’t gone beyond five innings pitched since September of 2019 and hasn’t lasted longer than six innings since July 2018.

The Mets struck out 11 times in their season opener yesterday, but have historically been an excellent contact team.

They struck out ninth least in MLB per nine innings during both the ‘19 and ‘20 seasons.

If they can tread water in that department today for a few innings, this prop bet should end a winner, as Anderson is unlikely to hang around long enough to exceed the total

Keep in mind that his pitches per start have dropped significantly each year from 90.2 P/S in 2017 to just 70.7 P/S in 2020.