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A Look at the Odds and Trends for Dolphins vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Don’t let the 11.5-point spread scare you away from Thursday Night Football.
The Bills are a heavy favorite on ESPN Bet at home, but there’s still plenty of potential for points and for this to be a semi-exciting contest. It’s a divisional game, and even if the Dolphins actually stink, it could be mildly competitive.
A year ago, the two Dolphins/Bills games featured 41 and 57 points and there are a few specific trends from those two games that stand out for Thursday’s contest in western New York.
Buffalo is 2-0 against the spread, while Miami is 1-1. Both teams are 1-1 to the total.
Obviously, neither team has been a favorite or underdog of this many points in 2025, but those trends are still worth pointing out.
The most notable prop trend may not be the one you expect to see at the top of the marquee.
De’Von Achane caught all 15 of his targets in two meetings with the Bills last season. He’s third among running back in receptions to start the 2025 campaign with 11. Only Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs have more receptions from the running back position.
Achane’s receptions prop sits at Over/Under 5.5. I would go with the over, even though it’s a high number for a running back. The matchup played in his favor last year and I’d have to imagine Tua Tagovailoa faces a ton of pressure from the Bills front seven, which lends itself to more short passes.
Outside of that, I don’t know if there’s any Dolphins prop to trust. Tyreek Hill should have multiple defenders on him all night, Jaylen Waddle is a bit banged up and there’s not much depth behind Hill and Waddle to trust.
There’s an abundance of props to choose from on the Bills side, though. The value is there for a few players because of how spread out that offense can be.
Just take a look at the receiving props for example. Khalil Shakir, who is Buffalo’s No. 1 wide out, is listed at Over/Under 43.5 receiving yards, as is Keon Coleman. Dalton Kincaid’s number is fairly low, too, for a No. 1 tight end at O/U 34.5.
Shakir did the most damage among those three pass-catchers against the Dolphins last year. He had 11 receptions and over 50 receiving yards in each game.
I’d use Achane 5+ receptions and Shakir 40+ receiving yards as a foundation for a four-leg SGP. ESPN Bet has a 30 percent profit boost available for Week 3 SGP of four legs or more.
James Cook 50+ rushing yards and Kincaid 30+ receiving yards are the other two legs I’d add to the SGP. Miami gave up over 120 rushing yards in each of the first two weeks and Kincaid went over 30 yards in each of the Bills’ first two games. That SGP gets you to +414 prior to the boost. If none of that interests you, maybe then it’s a night for PA online casino.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.