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A More Offensive Series Expected for Phillies in D.C.
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies jump from one series against an under-heavy team to a four-game set with the Nationals, who just had 39 total runs scored in a midweek series with the Royals.
Scoring should be the theme of Thursday’s series opener at Nationals Park.
Not only are the Nats bleeding runs at the moment, but at least nine runs were scored in five of the last six games started by Jesus Luzardo.
The Over/Under sits at 8.5 at bet365. I think the Phillies might get to that number on their own if they get the Nats on a really bad night. After all, this is a Washington team that allowed three double-digit run totals in its last home stand against Milwaukee and the Athletics. The Nats allowed at least six runs in all five of their losses during that last home stand.
The Phillies’ team total is understandably high at Over/Under 4.5. The Over sits at -160 at bet365. I would try to use that for bet365’s 30 percent SGP profit boost.
Nats starter Brad Lord owns a 4.15 home ERA, which is far worse than his 2.54 ERA away from the nation’s capital. Lefties have hit him slightly better, but there’s no significant difference in the splits versus the right-hander.
To fill out the SGP, I’d lean toward players in decent form at the plate, and ones who have hit righties well. Step right up, J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner.
Realmuto has a hit in six of his last seven games and Turner enters the series on a three-game hitting streak. Turner had a four-hit and three-hit game earlier in the season against the Nats as well.
A Turner hit, Realmuto hit and Phillies alt team total o3.5 is -110. I would expand on that to use the boost. Turner o1.5 total bases, Realmuto o1.5 total bases (both of which are plus money as straights) and Phillies o4.5 runs gets you to +425 before the boost is applied.
BetMGM has an Any Sport No Sweat Token available. I’d shoot for the stars for that one by adding a Kyle Schwarber home run to Turner and Realmuto o1.5 TB and the Phillies o4.5 runs prop. That SGP sits at +950. And if you want to stay away from this one after the last two night’s results, you can pivot with a betParx casino promo code or DraftKings promo code.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.