Legal Sports Betting

Assessing Zack Wheeler’s Cy Young Case One Month into Phillies’ Season

By Joe Tansey

Published: May 6th, 2025 · 1:26 PM EDT

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Zack Wheeler comes into his Tuesday start against the Tampa Bay Rays as the fourth favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award.

Wheeler’s odds vary across different sportsbooks. DraftKings has him at +1000, FanDuel lists him at +1500 and BetMGM has him at +1400.

Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Hunter Greene are the consensus top three at the moment, and while they’re deserving, I think Wheeler is a bit undervalued on the market.

Wheeler owns the second-highest strikeout total in the National League behind MacKenzie Gore. Greene is fourth, Yamamoto is fifth, and Skenes is 16th.

Skenes has a 2.74 ERA, but he hasn’t been as overwhelmingly dominant as he was last season. He’s had one game with more than seven strikeouts. And yes, he’s still very good, but I don’t know if it’s been good enough to be considered the favorite right now.

Yamamoto is probably Wheeler’s biggest competition in the long run. He’s the only NL pitcher with an ERA under one. He’s allowed just four earned runs over seven starts.

Skenes has the highest ticket percentage at BetMGM, while Yamamoto has the highest handle percentage to win the Cy Young.

Greene is the surprise Cy Young contender early on with top 10 numbers in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opposing batting average.

Wheeler’s got potential to gain ground over the next month, which is far easier on paper than April. He’ll get the Rays and Guardians in his next two starts and then the Pirates and Rockies as long as the rotation remains normal.

Then he gets to end May with a showdown against Atlanta, and if he performs well in that game, his Cy Young candidacy will get another boost.

The Rays, Pirates, Rockies and Braves all rank in the top 15 in strikeouts. There’s potential for some big numbers, and at minimum, a drop in odds even if one of the three favorites drops off or has a bad outing or two.

Wheeler won’t get up to favorite status by the end of the day, but if you believe in his consistency, now is the to act because Pennsylvania sports betting prices over +1000 might not be there after the next few appearances.