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Blue Jays vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 13
By Matt Modi
Published:
The Phillies continue their home-stand with a three game series against the Blue Jays. The Phils showed some signs of life taking two games from the Cubs, so we will see if they can keep it rolling.
There is a concern of this game getting rained out, but if it plays here are our favorite MLB player props for Blue Jays vs. Phillies, Friday June 13.
Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+500) bet365
Let’s start things off with a home run, backing Kepler to go yard against Kevin Gausman. Kepler was ice cold for about a month or so from May into the first 10 days of June, but recently he has shown some signs of life at the plate.
He went yard two games ago (and added three HardHits in that game as well), and he has three barrels in his last four games. That comes after going eight straight games without a barrel, and only one barrel in his last 11 games prior to this four game stretch.
Kepler had a run at the beginning of May when he was seeing the ball well, and it looks as though he is currently in one of those moments now as well.
Guasman is a good pitcher who has had a solid career, but he is gettable, especially against lefties. He has allowed nine home runs on the year, six of which have been hit by LHH. Four of those have been in his last five starts, allowing a home run every 17.75 at-bats to a lefty. The biggest home run pitch for Gausman is his 4-seam fastball, which he throws over 50% of the time.
Luckily for us, Kepler crushes 4-seamers from righties. He actually has some of the best numbers on the Phillies against this specific pitch. He has a .317 ISO rate (No. 1 on Phillies), 27.7% barrel rate (No. 1 on Phillies), 63.8% HardHit rate (No. 2 on Phillies), all with a high fly-ball rate of 46.8%. This is a dream matchup for Kepler to go yard, so hopefully he comes through for us.
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116) FanDuel
For our second and final pick, let’s get out of the home run market and dive into Suarez and his strikeout prop. The Blue Jays are a scary team to take any pitcher K prop against because they rarely strike out, but this number for Ranger is simply too low.
Suarez came back from injury on May 4th and has made seven total starts this season. In those seven starts, he has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in six of them, with an acceptable strikeout rate of 21.5%. His ability to go deep into games gives him more opportunities than normal to rack up strikeouts, as he has gone at least six innings in every one of his starts since his first one.
That first start, by the way, he struck out six Diamondbacks. That is significant because the Diamondbacks are the only team in the MLB with a lower strikeout rate than the Blue Jays against left-handed pitching.
Toronto has a low K rate of 18.8% against LHP on the year, but Arizona is lower than them at 17.3% and Suarez still got six of them to whiff in less than four innings pitched. It will be a sweat, but he should be able to get five batters to strike out tonight for us.