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Blue Jays vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 14
By Matt Modi
Published:
Yesterday was good both to us and to the Phillies. Our home run prediction did not come to fruition, but Suarez did manage to go over 4.5 strikeouts (he struck out six), and the Phillies won in convincing fashion 8-0.
As for today, Bowden Francis is on the mound, and he is among the worst pitcher in baseball at allowing home runs, which is great for us. Cristopher Sanchez is on the mound for the Phillies, and first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+275) bet365
Schwarber has gone yard in two straight games now, but he has about as good of an opportunity you could ask for today against Bowden Francis. As mentioned previously, Francis is among the worst pitchers in baseball in terms of allowing home runs, meaning he allows a lot of them. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 12.58 at-bats, which increases to every 9.50 at-bats against lefties. Anything under 20 is a bad number for a pitcher, and Francis is well below even that.
He has not gotten any better recently, allowing a home run every 13 at-bats in his last five starts and every 9 at-bats against LHH. We already know Schwarber is hot at the plate with a home run in two straight games, and he has great numbers against the pitch-mix from Francis as well.
Francis has three pitches that really get hit hard, the 4-seam fastball, spitter and curveball. Both of the home runs Schwarber has hit recently have been hit off the 4-seamer, but he also hits the curveball and splitter well.
On the year and against those two pitches from a righty, Schwarber has an 18% barrel rate and 66.7% HardHit rate, with an average exit velocity of 96.4 mph. Unsurprisingly, all three of those numbers lead the Phillies.
Oh, and lastly, Schwarber took Francis yard last year. Let’s hope he does so once again today, and if he does, you can cash in at PA sports betting apps.
Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+475) DraftKings
We have gone with Kepler two games in a row to no luck, but he continues to hit the ball well and, yet again, is going up against a fastball throwing pitcher who gets crushed.
Kepler obviously has the same advantage of going up against Bowden Francis and all those home run numbers mentioned above, but, one thing not mentioned yet is that Francis throws the 4-seam fastball 56% of the time against lefties.
As good as Schwarber is, Kepler actually has the best numbers against the 4-seamer on the Phillies. Both him and Schwarber have hit five home runs off 4-seamers from RHP on the entire season, but Kepler has done so in fewer at-bats.
From there, Kepler has the highest barrel rate (27.7%), second-highest HardHit rate (63.8%), highest fly-ball rate (46.8%) and the best ISO rate as well (.317) on the Phillies.