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Blue Jays vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 15th
By Matt Modi
Published:
The Phillies are looking to go for the sweep today against the Blue Jays after a dramatic 3-2 victory yesterday. Thanks to a Kepler home run in the bottom of the 8th (which we were on, by the way), the Phillies were able to squeak out a win in a weird game where two of their runs came while getting five baserunners without a single hit (three walks and two HBP will do that!)
With Zack Wheeler on the mound today, they have as good an opportunity as any to get the win, but it will not be easy against a good Blue Jays team.
For this article specifically, we will be diving into the best MLB player prop picks for Blue Jays vs. Phillies today, June 15, including the best home run predictions.
Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+600) bet365
Turner started the season barely hitting for any power, which seemed to come somewhat from Phillies manager Rob Thomson. That said, the power has come back for Turner, albeit slightly, as his bat has shown slightly more pop recently. In the month of June, Turner has a respectable barrel rate of 11.6% and HardHit rate of 51.2%. He has 22 HardHits in 12 games in June. Those numbers will not put him in the Hall of Fame, of course, but they are not terrible either.
The Phillies will be facing Jose Berrios at the plate, who can be hit or miss as a home run pitcher. He either seems to look like an ace, or completely unravel. Berrios has been good in his last three starts, only allowing two total barrels, but the two starts prior to that he was pummeled, so it is hard to know exactly what to expect.
What we do know, however, is that Berrios gives up significantly more power to right-handed hitters. On the year, Berrios has allowed a home run every 19 at-bats against RHH, up significantly from every 41 at-bats against LHH. Over the last 30 days, his barrel rate is 13.3% against RHH and all the way down to 4.8% against lefties.
The two biggest issues for Berrios in terms of pitch-mix is his sinker and slurve, and Turner has a 55% HardHit rate against those two pitches from righties, with a low strikeout rate of 7.69%.
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Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+700) BetMGM
Bohm has spent much of this season (and his career) as someone Phillies fans have been frustrated with, but his bat has improved recently. Granted, he started from such a low spot, but since May 6th he is hitting .326, with slightly above-average slugging (.489) and OPS (.846).
He obviously gets the same benefits of being a righty against Jose Berrios that Trea Turner has, and Bohm also has decent numbers against the pitch-mix, especially the sinker.
Surprisingly, Bohm has the best barrel rate against the sinker of any batter on the Phillies (11.4%) and the second-best HardHit rate (62.9%). The only batter with a higher HardHit rate is Johan Rojas, who also has a third of the at-bats and 5x the strikeout rate.
If you wanted to go the safer route, the 2+ bases for both Turner and Bohm are offered at plus-money, but for this article we will go for glory with the two home run plays at good odds.