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Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 3, 2021)

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: May 3rd, 2021 · 12:58 PM EDT

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After an absolutely miserable performance in front of a national audience last night, the Phillies will look to rebound tonight at Citizens Bank Park when they send Vince Velasquez to the mound to face a surprising first-place Brewers squad. Despite suffering a blowout loss yesterday, Milwaukee took three out of four games over the weekend from the Dodgers. Will they continue their stellar play out of the gates, or will the Phillies bounce back after giving away a pair of one-run losses?

Let’s take a look at the Brewers vs. Phillies odds for the opening game of a four-game set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

Brewers vs. Phillies Odds (May 3, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Brewers vs. Phillies odds for this May 3, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Yankees	-1.5 (+125)	-132	O 9 (-110)
Phillies	+1.5 (-148)	+114	U 9 (-110)

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Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction

After the soul-sucking final two innings of last night’s loss to the Mets, the Phillies’ response tonight should tell us a lot about this team. Another lackluster effort could confirm many suspicions that even their current 13-15 record might be a bit lucky. A gritty bounceback and spirited win could calm some fears from those wondering if it is going to be yet another long summer of bad baseball in the City of Brotherly Love.

Not as Bad as It Seems?

After watching the bullpen blow yet another lead, including Jose Alvarado’s meltdown, seeing Vince Velasquez get the ball tonight might not be the ideal scenario on paper. Velasquez has only topped five innings pitched in one of his last 10 starts, meaning we are almost inevitably going to be seeing somebody or somebodies we don’t want to make the stroll in from right center tonight.

However, Velasquez has held each of his last four opponents to three runs or less and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his last 10 starts, so he should at least keep his team in this one. His 4.95 ERA over his last eight starts has dipped to a 4.34 ERA in his most recent four, including the two starts this season. The right-hander has not had good success against current Brewers, but, in his defense, no one on the roster has faced him more than four times, so the sample space is somewhat poor.

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Playing Above Their Heads

Despite leading the NL Central with a 17-11 record, Milwaukee is no juggernaut. The good record masks the facts that the Brewers have only scored five more runs than Philadelphia through 28 games and have allowed more runs than they have scored thus far. Oddly, the Brewers are 8-2 against winning teams and just 9-9 against teams currently with losing records, like the Phils. We think they could let down again here in their first road game in eight days, as they are coming in after taking three of four at home from the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Milwaukee will send RHP Adrian Houser to the hill in this series opener. Houser regressed a bit last summer after a strong 2019 in which he amassed a 3.72 ERA in a split between starting and relief duties. In 2020, 11 of his 13 appearances were as a starter and his ERA ballooned to 5.30. He has consistently carried a high WHIP throughout his career and that has not changed this season, posting a 1.42 WHIP in the early going. That’ll happen when your opponents hit .278 off of you and you walk 10 batters in just 24.2 innings pitched.

For a guy in the regular rotation, you should take note of that low innings pitched number this season. Tonight will be Houser’s sixth start and he has not pitched six innings in any of his previous five outings, walking six batters in just 9.2 IP in his two road starts. That means we should see plenty of the Brewers’ mediocre bullpen.

The Brewers’ pen has just a 4.35 ERA overall this season, a number that jumps to a 4.50 ERA on the road. They are also in a bad usage spot right now as starters Zack Godley, Corbin Burnes, and Brett Anderson are all on the shelf and their replacements are unlikely to give the innings those guys could offer. On top of that pressure, Milwaukee had to use five relief arms to secure an 11-inning victory over the Dodgers two nights ago and then got just four innings from yesterday’s starter as the Dodgers got their revenge with nine runs over the first two innings.

With all of those starting pitching injuries and a lineup that is without Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, a closer look has us feeling like this Brewers’ team might be due for some serious regression, perhaps starting tonight.

Update: Some relevant breaking news suggests both Yelich and Cain could return tonight.

The hope is for both to be in the lineup tonight. https://t.co/mlRDN5C8tN

— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) May 3, 2021

Milwaukee has won just one of their last five road games against teams with sub .500 records. They are also only 1-5 in their last six games against teams who just scored five or more runs last time out. The Phils, as we know, put seven (or eight, if you ask Rhys Hoskins) across last night.

While Philly has struggled for a month and has not won back-to-back games since early April, they are still 5-1 in their last six games after a loss. They have also won 11 of their last 15 home games with totals set  between 8 and 9.5. That echoes Philadelphia’s overall home success. They are 9-6 at home thus far this season and 22-10 over their last 32 games at Citizens Bank Park, including 14-5 here in their last 19 as a favorite.

Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Pick

Stats, trends, and pitching matchups aside, the bottom line is this should be an immense statement game for the Phillies that tells us all a lot about what kind of team they truly are (or are not). With a motivated bunch looking for redemption, we will lightly ride the Phillies to show some mettle tonight and earn a much-needed victory.

Our Pick: Phillies (-113)

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