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Brooms in Hand as -130 Phillies Throw Jesus Luzardo Against David Peterson and Slumping Mets
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies can deal the final blow to the New York Mets in the NL East race on Thursday night.
Look, they’re going to win the division regardless of what happens at Citizens Bank Park, but they have an opportunity to just completely demoralize the Mets and maybe send them into a tailspin that forces them out of the wild-card spots.
I could see the hesitancy to back the Phillies on the -130 money line at ESPN Bet because of Jesus Luzardo, but David Peterson is trending in the wrong direction. And fast.
Peterson let up 12 earned runs on 15 hits in his last two outings against Miami and Cincinnati, who are not exactly offensive powerhouses.
A handful of Phillies hitters have had a lot of success against Peterson, including Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Edmundo Sosa.
Harper has a .409 average in 22 ABs against Peterson, while Castellanos has a .400 AVG in 15 ABs and Sosa has a homer and a .714 AVG in 7 ABs.
A Harper/Castellanos/Sosa to get a hit Same Game Parlay sits at +171 at ESPN Bet. That’s assuming Casty plays. If he doesn’t, I’d put Harrison Bader into the SGP, which gives you slightly better odds at +178.
ESPN Bet also has a 20 and 30 percent profit boost for MLB games on Thursday.
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I’d use the combinations listed above for one of those boosts, but using 2+ total bases. Harper/Castellanos/Sosa pays out at +840.
Sosa to have 2+ total bases at +145 is my favorite play based on value. He has a hit in each of his last three games against the Mets and obviously has dealt with Peterson well.
Hell, if you want to get wild with PA sports betting, Sosa to hit a home at +800 is in play.
I would play something similar to last night’s bet for the other profit boost. Go with Phillies money line, Luzardo Over 5.5 Ks, Pete Alonso to strikeout once and Sosa Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs. That pays out at +372 before either boost is applied.
Happy Sweeping!
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.