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Cubs vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 10
By Matt Modi
Published:
The Phillies managed to squeak one out yesterday against the Cubs in extra-innings thanks to some small ball action in the bottom of the 11th inning.
The power was not there for the Phillies, as they did not hit any home runs, but the Cubs did manage to get two to go yard, and, as is pretty much the entirety of the summer, Citizens Bank Park is a great home run venue as long as the weather holds up. Luckily, the weather does hold up today, with a +24.8% home run weather advantage according to RotoGrinders and +9% per Ballpark Pal. So, no matter how you slice it, balls should be flying in Philly tonight.
With that thought in mind, let’s dive into the best MLB home run predictions for Cubs vs. Phillies today, Tuesday June 10th.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+215) FanDuel
Taking Schwarber to go yard is admittedly as square as it gets (and the odds reflect that), but for good reason. He has not been red hot at the plate, with 0 HardHits in each of his last two games, but that comes after a game in which he hit a home run against the Pirates and added three HardHits to boot. More importantly, Schwarber has a barrel rate of 20% and HardHit rate of 66.7% over the last 30 days, so it is not as though he is in a pronounced cold spell or anything like that.
The Phillies offense has been stuck in mud recently, and an easy way to get out of that is with Schwarber swinging for the fences, which he will most likely be doing tonight. He is facing Colin Rea, a pitcher that Schwarber has had success against in the past, and also a pitcher that can give up the long ball.
Over his last five starts, Rea has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats, along with a 13% barrel rate and 56.7% HardHit rate. Those two numbers combined with a low strikeout rate of 15.1% shows a pitcher that can be had.
Schwarber took Rea yard back in 2023, and has three hits against him in eight at-bats over the last three years. Let’s hope Schwarber sends one into space tonight.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+320) BetMGM
PCA was one of our predictions to go yard yesterday, which did not come through, but it was not for lack of trying. He led the Cubs with three HardHits, two of which were absolutely smoked.
He had a flyout that traveled 393 feet, which would have easily been a home run if he was able to pull it as opposed to it being sent directly to center field. He also had a double that was 101.8 mph EV off the bat, he just did not quite get under it enough for it to be a real home run threat. What this means, though, is that PCA is swinging a hot bat, and his ability to put the ball in the air is his best advantage to hitting a home run tonight.
For context, PCA has the second-highest average launch angle (23.9 degrees) and the fifth-highest fly-ball rate (54%) in the entire MLB. Him being able to hit fly-balls with some power is the reason he is tied for 8th in the MLB with 17 home runs hit, and will come in handy in a positive home run environment at the Bank tonight.
In terms of the pitching matchup, that is where things can get a little scary, admittedly. Mick Abel is pitching for the Phillies and he has been phenomenal through two MLB starts this year. He has not given up a home run yet, and has not really been hit hard either. That said, the fly-ball that PCA hit over 390 feet yesterday was hit off Zack Wheeler, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
So, if he can hit Wheeler hard, he should also be able to hit Abel hard as well, and the Phillies bullpen can easily give one up as well.