Ad Disclosure
Cy Young Candidate Cristopher Sanchez and Phillies a -125 Favorite in Series Finale Against Reds
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Cristopher Sanchez comes into the series finale against the Reds with +500 odds at BetMGM to win the NL Cy Young.
Paul Skenes is the -275 favorite and Zack Wheeler is +260. (A quick aside: I wouldn’t bet Sanchez at +500 right now. It’s a bad number based on what others bet earlier in the season and the underlying metrics still all favor Skenes. Only a tremendous drop off from Skenes and Wheeler would lead to more Cy Young votes for Sanchez).
Now that that’s out of the way, remind your parents that today’s game weirdly starts at 5:10 p.m. ET.
The Phillies are a -125 money line favorite at bet365. The Over/Under sits at 8.5. As I noted Tuesday, and what has been evident all series, is that the Reds are on a crazy under streak. The under is 2-0 in the series and under 7.5 total runs has hit in 6 of last 7 Phillies games, plus 10 of last 11 Reds games.
I’ve noted earlier in the season that Sanchez starts typically lean toward unders as well. Only one of the last 11 games in which Sanchez started featured more than eight runs.
The other standout trend is that Sanchez has had at least five strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances. That’s important because his strikeout prop sits at Over/Under 5.5.
I wouldn’t use Ranger Suarez’s last start to base your Sanchez bets. Suarez’s starts trended downward recently, while Sanchez has been super consistent every five or six days.
Sanchez is going up against a Reds offense that ranks 19th in strikeouts against lefties, but has the third-worst batting average versus southpaws.
However, the Reds do have the third-most strikeouts in the majors in the last week. They have 50 in that span. Only the White Sox and Tigers have fanned more since last Wednesday.
With that in mind, I’d take the risk on betting the Sanchez K prop over, but I’d also use the 5+ K marker as a piece in a Same Game Parlay.
Hunter Greene is making his first start in two months for the Reds, so there’s some hesitancy with betting any of his markets. I’d use his 5+ K number, though, because I think he gets through at least two spins through the order before he gets pulled.
bet365 has a 30 percent Same Game Parlay profit boost available for Wednesday. I would attack the batter strikeouts market to combine with the 5+ Ks on each starter.
Elly De La Cruz and Bryce Harper are both tied for the fourth-most strikeouts in the last week in the majors, as is Reds outfielder TJ Friedl.
It’s not exactly juicy at -110 before the boost, but Sanchez 5+ Ks, Greene 5+ Ks, Harper to strikeout and De La Cruz to strikeout is the way to go.
If you want to avoid the pitchers for PA sports betting, I’d combine a few players on each side for a batter strikeouts SGP. Harper, Nick Castellanos, De La Cruz and Friedl to strikeout once is +175. I’d also look into Friedl to strikeout at -185 with how much he’s struck out lately.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.