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Eagles a Slight Favorite for Week 7 Road Trip to Minnesota
By Joe Tansey
Published:
It’s still unclear if the Eagles being back in action on Sunday will be good for the collective mental health of the fan base.
So let’s focus on the positives for the trip to Minnesota, at least to start.
The Birds are a two-point favorite at BetMGM:
The Over/Under sits at 44. Minnesota enters Sunday 5-1 to the over, which is one of the NFL’s top rates.
The Eagles are only 3-3 to the over, which is actually surprising since the defense allowed 20+ points in five of their six games. The concern on Sunday is very obviously Justin Jefferson, but the numbers are somewhat favorable to the Birds. They’ve only allowed over 200 passing yards twice. Where they’ve really been killed is in the run game. Each one of the Eagles’ opponents have run for over 100 yards.
The Vikings are more known for their passing game, but Jordan Mason’s been effective as the main back, and if J.J. McCarthy starts over Carson Wentz, he adds a more mobile component to their offense. The Giants tore apart the Eagles with the Jaxson Dart/Cam Skattebo duo last week.
The best way for the Eagles to combat their poor rush defense is to run the ball themselves. Minnesota’s defense allowed more than 100 rushing yards four times in five games. Hello, Saquon Barkley breakout game.
Barkley’s rush-yard Over/Under currently sits at 74.5 at bet365, the lowest the prop has been all season. Barkley hasn’t had more than 60 rushing yards since the Week 2 win over Kansas City, but the Minnesota defense is exploitable, which is a promising sign for a Birds offense desperate to return to its 2024 form.
The passing game is its own disaster to fix, but Dallas Goedert has been the one constant recently. Goedert enters Sunday on a four-game scoring streak and he had nine catches on 11 targets for 110 yards against the Giants. The Eagles tight end is +250 to score at bet365:
Goedert’s receptions prop sits at Over/Under 4.5, which is the same number as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. That typically isn’t the case for the three primary pass-game targets.
Goedert’s yardage prop sits at Over/Under 39.5. He’s gone over that line twice in five appearances. He’s had at least 30 yards in four of his five games this season.
Barkley to have 60+ rush yards and Goedert 30+ receiving yards gets you right to even money for a Same Game Parlay at bet365. I would add Jordan Mason 60+ rush yards to that to get to +230.
Some kind of Justin Jefferson prop can be added to that as well, but that’s a little dependent on which quarterback lines up under center. If it’s McCarthy, it might take a while for the Vikings to find an offensive rhythm, but if it’s Wentz, the Vikings can pick right up from before the bye.
No matter who starts for Minnesota, the goal here is simple for the Birds. Exploit the Minnesota rushing defense, get Saquon going and find some semblance of consistency with everyone in the passing game.
Follow those keys to the game and there’s momentum going into the Week 8 rematch with the Giants. Seems easy, right?
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.