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Eagles are a Touchdown Favorite in Washington with NFC East Title on the Line
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Eagles are a 7-point favorite at BetMGM to secure the NFC East title on Saturday evening against the Washington Commanders.
The number already moved up in the Birds’ favor throughout the week. It might get over a touchdown prior to kickoff in Landover.
Washington’s season is over. Jayden Daniels and Zach Ertz are both out for the year. The running attack has been banged up all season and the defense routinely gives up over 300 total yards.
So, yeah, at least on paper, the Eagles are in a terrific position to cruise in a similar fashion to Sunday’s victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
That win over Vegas was just the second time the Birds covered as a favorite of a touchdown or more this season. They are 2-3 ATS as a 7-plus-point favorite. They are 1-3 ATS in NFC East games.
The good news for the Birds is that the trends are more drastic for the Commanders as a higher underdog. They are 0-2 ATS as an underdog of seven or more points. They lost to Kansas City and Detroit in those games.
If you expand more on the underdog trend, the Commanders are 3-8 ATS as an underdog.
The Over 44.5 is lower than it has been for most Commanders games. They are 3-1 to the over when the total sits below 45 points. The Eagles are 5-4 to the under when the total closed at 45 or lower.
Any bet on the Over comes down to how effective you think Washington’s offense can be. The Birds will probably be in the 20-30 point range versus a Commanders defense that let up 79 points over the last three games.
Marcus Mariota’s been effective enough for the Commanders. I’d actually bet on him in one capacity on Saturday. The Eagles give up the second-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Mariota’s rush-yard prop sits at Over/Under 28.5. He had over 40 rushing yards in three of his last four starts.
The Commanders have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs and the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Saquon Barkley, who needs 60 yards for a 1,000-yard campaign, has 200 yards on the ground in the last two games.
A.J. Brown only had two catches last week, but he still has three 100-yard games in the last four and he’s just 160 yards away from a 1,000-yard season of his own.
If you want to keep it super simple at Pennsylvania and New Jersey sports betting apps: Barkley 60+ rush yards and Brown 60+ receiving yards gets you to +120 at bet365. It’s +210 if you bump the yardage totals up to 70 each.
I wouldn’t go too crazy with props because of the blowout potential, but I do like the Eagles to have Over 3.5 touchdowns, a +165 prop at bet365.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.