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Eagles (Finally) Back in Action as a 2.5-Point Road Favorite Against Chargers
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Monday night’s Eagles/Chargers game carries all sorts of playoff ramifications in both conferences.
The Birds, who are a 2.5-point favorite at BetMGM, need a win for seeding at the top of the NFC, and to put some distance between themselves and the Cowboys, while the Chargers are locked in a tight battle in the AFC wild-card race.
Morale is incredibly low around these parts because the Eagles defense, which appeared to be one of the best units in football for a weeks, gave up more than 400 total yards to both the Cowboys and Bears.
Jalen Carter’s injury absence (shoulders) could open up a huge hole in the middle of the Birds defense, and if that is the case, the Eagles might be forced to score in the high 20s. There’s been at least 35 points in all of the Chargers’ home games. Four of those six games featured both teams scoring in the 20s.
Sixty-four percent of the total bets at BetMGM are on an over of 41.5. It’s worth noting that three of the last four Eagles games had less than 40 points, because, well, you know, the offense has its own litany of issues.
The most frustrating trend in play for Monday’s game is the Eagles’ concessions on the ground. The Bears ran all over the Birds on Black Friday and the Chargers will be stronger in the backfield with the return of Omarion Hampton.
It feels like a steal to get Hampton at Over 43.5 rushing yards at bet365 because of how poor the Eagles have looked lately, and because of Carter’s absence. If you remember, the Cowboys had 119 rushing yards in Week 1 when Carter was booted on the first drive for spitting.
I think you can also make a case for Saquon Barkley at Over 70.5 rushing yards, or even Tank Bigsby’s rushing-yard prop when it gets released closer to kickoff. Four of the Chargers’ six 100-yard concessions on the ground came at Sofi Stadium.
If you want to lowball Barkley, I’d put his 60+ rushing yards in a Same Game Parlay with Hampton 40+ rushing yards to get to +145 at bet365.
The Chargers have allowed the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers and the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. The Eagles have actually allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
I would argue A.J. Brown is the exception to the Chargers’ defensive trends. He’s gone over 100 yards in each of the last two weeks and has 10+ targets in each of the last three games.
Brown’s props sits at Over/Under 4.5 receptions and Over/Under 62.5 receiving yards at bet365. I’d absolutely go after the Over on the receptions prop because of the high target rate.
Brown 5+ receptions, Barkley 60+ rushing yards, and Hampton 40+ rushing yards get you to +290 before you apply bet365’s 50 percent profit boost for SGPs of three or more legs.
As for touchdown props at PA and NJ betting apps, all players are even-money or better at bet365. Barkley, Hampton and Brown are the obvious picks, but I’ll give you two long shots. Justin Herbert at +700. He’s more mobile than you think, and if Hampton is ineffective, he might scramble more. I’ll give Bigsby a shot at +1200 because at some point he’s going to break one in his limited time on the field spelling Barkley.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.