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Fade Kinkead: Five Weekend Bets You Can Tail, or Do the Exact Opposite Instead
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It’s been a weird couple of weeks for our weekend betting pursuits. A couple of bad beats, like Pitt’s best player going down injured in the Backyard Brawl, resulting in the Panthers looking like the Bad News Bears on the afternoon.
Last weekend, for instance, we were burned by a backdoor Temple cover, while the Union won, but only mustered a single goal at home. Rutgers and Iowa decided that defense was optional in Piscataway, but we broke even on the strength of Jalen Hurts props and the Phillies/D Backs over hitting in two of the three games.
We’re basically flat through a couple of weeks, so you can do one of two things here.
You can tail me in hopes that the bad beats are aberrations, or you can fade Kinkead and do the total opposite instead.
Here’s what we’re looking at this weekend:
Eagles at Buccaneers
Keep it simple. There’s nothing broken here and therefore no fixing required.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer has cashed six times in a row and in 16 of the last 22 games he has started and finished. He found the end zone last year down in Tampa and there’s no reason not to take this at -130 at ESPN Bet.
Phillies vs. Twins
It’s Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez going for the Phils in a weekend series that doesn’t mean anything for either team, outside of the Phillies hopefully taking some momentum into the five-day gap before the NLDS.
For Friday night, Nola vs. Joe Ryan, there’s value on the over 8.5 at -110. For games two and three, look into the Phillies’ first five innings moneyline with two studs on the mound. The other thing to consider is playing time for some fringe guys, as Topper balances rest and form in the final home series. There might be some value on guys like Edmundo Sosa and the platoon outfielders this weekend.
Union at D.C. United
Of the three remaining games, this one is the easiest.
D.C. United totally stinks. They’ve only won five games out of 31 and have either tied or lost 13 of their 15 home games.
The U throttled D.C. 3-0 at home back in April and there’s no reason to think they won’t handle business in Warshington on Saturday night. I’d hesitate on playing any totals, but the Union moneyline at -110 is perfectly reasonable. We play that, OUTRIGHT.
Penn State vs. Oregon
If you agree that “less is more” when it comes to sports betting, then we keep things very simple and take Penn State -185 on the moneyline. It’s hard to see Oregon, or anyone, coming out to Happy Valley and winning a nighttime White Out game with a first-year quarterback.
If you don’t like that number, you can get PSU -3.5 at -110 or move the line down to -2.5 at -170, which cashes on a field-goal win.
The 53.5 total in this game is really screwing with my head, and probably yours as well. On one hand, recent White Out unders have hit because the Nitter defense totally shuts down the opposing team. They clubbed Iowa 31-0, Washington 35-6, and SMU 38-10. SMU was played during the day, but still.
On the other hand, there’s no good tape on Penn State because they haven’t played anybody yet, so it’s impossible to know how good this offense truly is. Oregon, at the same time, hasn’t played a game that finished under 48 points since Wisconsin in November of 2024. That’s a team that rarely finds itself in a low-scoring dog fight, so if you feel like this is going to be a close game, it’s probably reaching at least 45 points. It’s just hard to picture a shootout in a night game at Beaver.
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UFC Perth
This card features a five-round main event between 12-1 Carlos Ulberg and 15-4 Dominick Reyes.
Ulberg used to be a quick finisher, winning four fights in two years with first round KOs or subs. But when the competition level increased, and he fought Jan Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir, the fights were much more cautious and careful, and he won both by unanimous decision over three rounds.
Reyes, on the other hand, hasn’t gone to a decision since his controversial loss to Jon Jones way back in 2020. In the six fights since, he’s been knocked out three times in the first or second round, or knocked out his opponents in the first or second round.
So consensus suggests that this does not go five rounds. However, based on how defensive Ulberg looked against Blachowicz in London, you have to think that strategy continues in Perth. This is a five-rounder with title implications at light heavyweight, so reckless swinging out of the gates probably isn’t in the cards. That being the case, the values is on the over 1.5 total rounds at -145.
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Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com