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Feels Like an Under with Cristopher Sanchez Opposing Landen Roupp in San Francisco
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The scheduling gods aren’t exactly fans of the Phillies, who begin a six-game California road swing prior to the All-Star break on Monday in San Francisco.
The Phils haven’t been west of Houston since Memorial Day weekend and they have one more west-coast road trip in September. They had one to Colorado and Sacramento in May.
Scheduling questions aside, the Phils are in a good spot to cash the -135 money line inside Oracle Park.
Cristopher Sanchez enters Monday with better numbers across the board compared to Landen Roupp.
The Phillies are 13-4 when Sanchez starts and the Under is 5-0 in the last five Sanchez starts.
Oracle Park certainly isn’t a hitters’ paradise. Even when the wind is blowing out, the way the stadium is built neutralizes wind impact.
Sanchez and Roupp combined to allow one home run since June 1st, so I’d highly consider betting the under 7.5.
The Giants are 4-2 to the under in Roupp’s six starts.
BetMGM has a boost on the yes run first inning/no run first inning for this game. I’d apply the boost to the NRFI.
Roupp doesn’t allow a ton of home runs, but walks have been an Achilles heel for him. The right-hander issued multiple walks in nine consecutive starts, including four against the Diamondbacks in his last outing.
Roupp’s over/under for walks at bet365 is 2.5, with the over sitting at +150. That’s a high number for any pitcher, but he did walk five against the Dodgers and three Red Sox to go along with the number versus the DBacks in his last four appearances.
The Phillies are tied for the sixth-most walks in the majors, and at bet365, you can place walks issued by the pitcher and batter walks into a Same Game Parlay.
Kyle Schwarber is the very obvious No. 1 pick for walks. He leads the Phils with 64, while no one else has more than 40.
Roupp’s issued 25 walks to lefties and 13 to righties. Bryce Harper and Max Kepler are second and third on the team in walks.
At PA sports betting apps, and New Jersey sports betting apps, I’d play the over 0.5 on Schwarber, Harper, and Kepler to walk because of how egregious Roupp’s splits are.
I’d also have some fun with bet365’s 30 percent SGP boost. Roupp o2.5 walks, Schwarber, Harper and Kepler o0.5 walks sits at +1200 before the boost is applied.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com