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Joel Embiid-less Sixers a +6.5 Home Dog Against Orlando
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Somehow, some way, the Sixers are only a 6.5-point home underdog at BetMGM against the Orlando Magic on Monday night:
I’m a little doom and gloom on that because Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Jared McCain are all out. Though, as a quick aside, Embiid better go for 40 & 12 against the Wizards Tuesday night if the Sixers are legit resting the big man on the front end of a back-to-back. /endrant
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe help the Sixers keep the game close against Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Co. out of pure will power, but eventually something has to give, right?
No matter what the final result is, the Sixers need strong efforts out of Kelly Oubre Jr., Quentin Grimes, and the Andre Drummond/Adem Bona pairing. But the problem for the Sixers is that this might be a matchup in which Drummond and Bona are useless.
The Paolo Banchero/Franz Wagner/Desmond Bane trio is way more athletic than both Sixers’ big men and that could easily result in foul trouble for both players, and in turn, a smaller lineup out of Nick Nurse.
I would be tempted to buy stock in Edgecombe’s rebounding ability, because at minimum we know he’ll be on the floor for 30-plus minutes. He had 13 rebounds across the first two games. His rebound prop sits at over/under 5.5 at betMGM:
It’s not a huge surprise to see Edgecombe’s points Over/Under elevated to 18.5. Maxey has the highest point prop on the Sixers roster for Monday at 28.5.
To actually win the game, one or both of Oubre and Grimes has to be close to 15 points. Oubre’s O/U is 13.5, while Grimes’ O/U is 14.5.
It’s early in the season, but take this stat as a note for Monday’s props. Orlando has the ninth-best three-point defense, but ranks 20th in opponent two-point field-goal percentage at 47.9. Just from the numbers alone, that strikes me as more of a positive for Oubre because he’ll attack the rim more than Grimes.
Franz Wagner is the player the Sixers must stop. Wagner destroyed the Sixers with three 30-point performances last season. All of those games occurred with no Banchero, but the matchup still suits the German forward, who typically takes 15-20 shots a game anyway.
For NJ and PA betting promos, bet365 has a 50 percent SGP profit boost available for Monday. I would pair Wagner 20+ points, Oubre 10+ points and Edgecombe 5+ rebounds together to get to +140 before the boost is applied.
If you want something on the higher end, Wagner 25+ points, Oubre 15+ points and Edgecombe Over 5.5 rebounds puts you at +650.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.