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Kraken Skulls: Flyers a -135 Home Favorite vs. Seattle
By Joe Tansey
Published:
You could make a pretty convincing argument that Monday’s game against the Kraken is the most winnable game so far on the Flyers’ schedule.
They started out with a gauntlet against the Panthers (twice), Hurricanes, Wild, and Jets. The schedule starts to ease up on Monday with the Flyers as a -135 favorite on the money line at BetMGM:
Seattle’s had one of the more statistically bizarre starts to the NHL season. The Kraken went to overtime on four occasions in their first five games. Only their opener against Anaheim ended in regulation.
The Flyers have gone to overtime twice in five games, so it’s easy to look at certain props a different way. The game to end in Overtime is +400 at bet365. The game to end in a shootout is +850.
I’ll add a few caveats to this: Seattle is playing hard under a new coach, but also on the fourth game of a six-game road swing. The Kraken won’t have Jared McCann, arguably their best forward, available for this game. There’s probably going to be a point where the intensity and travel wears them down. It might not be tonight, but it’s definitely a factor to consider, and one that should benefit the home team.
As for the Flyers, they’re also playing hard under their new coach. The wins over Florida and Minnesota were no flukes, which is why there’s a huge opportunity to build momentum over the next two weeks. The Flyers are at home for six of the next seven. The first four of those home games come against teams that didn’t make the postseason last year. There’s also a road game in Ottawa, who is without Brady Tkachuk, mixed in to the next five contests.
Both teams give up less than 27.5 shots per game, so that’s one of the reasons why their games have been so tight and have been in overtime multiple times.
There aren’t a ton of statistical outliers to consider for Pennsylvania sports betting, or NJ, but Seattle does give up the seventh-most shots per game to right wingers, a stat that suits Owen Tippett and Matvei Michkov. It’s hard to tell anyone to bet on Michkov right now because he’s been benched in the third period multiple times. You’re basically banking on him to cash shot, point, or goal props in significantly-less ice time than the Flyers’ other top players.
On the other hand, Tippett has 14 SOGs in five games. Nine of those SOGs came in the Flyers’ wins. Tippett to have 3+ SOG and the Flyers money line pays out in a +185 SGP at BetMGM.
I’d get a little more creative with bet365’s 30 percent NHL SGP boost. I’d play Tippett o2.5 SOG with Tippett and Sean Couturier to each have a point. That SGP pays out at +350 before the boost. Coots is the early team leader in points and plays on the line with Tippett, who has a strong matchup on his hands.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.