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Low-Scoring Game Expected in Phillies vs. Astros Series Opener
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Don’t expect a scoring bonanza in Houston tonight.
In fact, I wouldn’t expect a ton of runs in at least two of the three games between the Phils and Astros.
The first of two mega-pitching matchups pits Ranger Suarez against Framber Valdez on Tuesday night, where the over/under at BetMGM is 7.5 with even-money odds on the over.
We all know how excellent Ranger’s been on the mound for the Phils. He allowed four earned runs and struck out 21 batters over 27 innings in four June starts. The only bad start the southpaw had was his first appearance of the season against the DBacks.
Valdez has been equally as excellent for the Astros. He’s struck out 26 batters and only allowed six earned runs in his three June starts. He fanned 11 and 12 batters in the first two of those three appearances.
Valdez’s strikeout prop sits at over/under 6.5, while Suarez’s number is at over/under 4.5. I’d be wary about betting Suarez’s strikeouts because Houston is the only team in the majors with less than 100 strikeouts against left-handed pitching.
Houston only has 91 Ks versus lefties. That’s a 42-strikeout difference to the Blue Jays, who have the second-fewest Ks versus lefties.
However, if you want to use those numbers as a comparison, Suarez did punch out six Toronto hitters over seven innings on June 13th.
Both pitchers have outs recorded props of over/under 18.5 with the overs at plus money at bet365.
For Pennsylvania sports betting, I would look more into the over on Suarez for that prop since he’s lasted seven innings in each of his last three appearances.
Runs of any sort are going to be hard to come by, which is why even Kyle Schwarber is +390 to hit a home run on Tuesday night. I would stay away from most hitter props and just back Ranger to have another solid outing to kick off what will probably be a low-scoring series.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.