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Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 19, 2021)
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The Phillies used a seven-run eighth inning surge in which they sent 12 batters to the plate to overcome a 3-1 deficit en route an 8-3 win over the Marlins in the series opener last night. Tonight, they will send Zach Eflin to the hill against Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who has quietly had an outstanding start to his season.
Let’s take a look at the Marlins vs. Phillies betting odds and make some betting picks for the second game of a three-game set.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds (May 19, 2021)
Here is a look at the current Marlins vs. Phillies odds for this May 19, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Marlins vs. Phillies Pick
After losing our under pick last night on a nine-run eighth inning, some might perceive another under pick as us being gluttons for punishment, but we prefer to think of it as finding extra value. With the way the Marlins have played low-scoring games all season, if last night had finished 1-0 or 2-1, we very well might have had a total set at 7 here. Instead, we get a solid 7.5 after some may also have grabbed a total of 8 earlier in the day.
We have two reliable pitchers facing off against two bottom-half scoring offenses with neither groups’ bats doing much of anything before that fateful eighth inning last night.
Eflin continues to be a reliable arm for the Phillies, despite taking the loss his last time out. He settled in after some early trouble to continue his streak of eight straight starts of at least six innings pitched this season. He has had tremendous success against the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park, winning four straight against them here with a 2.32 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 31 innings pitched.
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Rogers’ Revenge
Trevor Rogers enters this one with revenge on his mind. The Phillies lit him up for nine runs in three innings in an 11-0 loss in Miami last September. Since that nightmare, Rogers has been a machine, allowing two earned runs or less in nine of his 11 subsequent starts. The two home runs the lefty allowed to the Phils in that brief outing matches the total he has given up in those 11 starts since.
Six of his last eight starts have produced seven or fewer total runs, with one of the two that went over seven reaching just eight runs. With the league’s fifth-best ERA this season at 1.84 and a chance to avenge the poor first start against a team he will see a lot, we expect a dominant performance from the talented young lefty here.
As mentioned, these two teams have had to win with their starting pitching more often than not this season. Six of the Marlins’ last nine games have produced seven total runs or less, with the same being true for five of the Phillies’ last eight games. In fact, 22 of the Marlins’ 41 games have seen seven or fewer total runs, with another five producing just eight runs.
The Phillies have 19 games of seven or less total runs to their name thus far and three more that reached eight total. For the plus pitching matchup we have here, we have to like our odds of staying low again tonight.
The Marlins’ pitching has been so solid this season that last night was only the third time they have allowed eight ore more runs in a loss this year. The prior two times they did so, their next game produced five and seven total runs, respectively.
Just to expand that subset a bit, the Marlins have allowed seven runs in a game seven times this season and have seen their next games average just four total runs apiece!
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Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction
The Marlins have played five of their last six under the total after a loss and the same after allowing five runs or more in their prior game. They have also played five of their last seven under as a road dog. The Phils have played four straight under games against teams who just allowed five plus, as the Marlins obviously did last night. Tonight should make it five of the last six under for Philly against left-handed starters.
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