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Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 1, 2021)

By Bob Wankel

Published: May 1st, 2021 · 9:04 AM EDT

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The Phillies will look to earn a series victory and win consecutive contests for the first time in 23 games this evening when send Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.14 ERA) to the mound against the Mets. New York will counter with Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.13 ERA).

Let’s take a look at the Mets vs. Phillies odds for the second game of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds (May 1, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Mets vs. Phillies odds for this May 1, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Yankees	-1.5 (+125)	-132	O 9 (-110)
Phillies	+1.5 (-148)	+114	U 9 (-110)

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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction

After one of the stranger games you are likely to see in baseball this season, the Mets and Phillies will enter tonight’s early evening game with chips on their collective shoulders after the late antics between Jose Alvarado and Dominic Smith. But the bigger picture here is a battle between two National League East rivals fighting for the lead in a division where just 1.5 games separate first and last place.

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With such parity in mind, it might be easier to accept the long-running trend of the Phillies being unable to win back-to-back games.

Each of Philadelphia’s last nine wins were quickly followed by a loss the next time out. This 0-9 streak after a win dates all the way back to the beginning of the team’s second series of the season on April 5. That is far more likely to be based on something more than just simple random chance.

The root of the trend probably rests with a  struggling offense and inconsistent-at-best bullpen.

When you have those two things happening on a club, it is difficult to string wins together, no matter how well your starting pitching performs.

Wheeler Looks to Dominate Again

That being said, tonight’s starter, RHP Zach Wheeler has been good, but has not quite lived up to his first start of the season, nor the early hype of being a potential dark horse NL Cy Young candidate.

The Phillies are just 2-3 in Wheeler’s starts this season. He has allowed 2.13 home runs per nine innings at Citizens Bank Park thus far, including three alone in his last home outing against the Giants.

He has allowed three earned runs in each of his last three starts against his former team, the Mets, seeing his Phillies lose each of the last two, including a 5-1 defeat in mid-April.

Current Mets have stung Wheeler with a .330 (33-for-100) career batting average against. In fact, every active position player for New York tonight has at least one lifetime hit off the righty. A surely fired up Dom Smith has owned Wheeler, too, going 6-for-13 in his career (.462).

The Phillies used four of their more reliable bullpen arms an inning each in last night’s windy win, piggybacking nine different arms combining for eight innings of work in the two days before that.

Even if Wheeler goes 6+ IP tonight, we are likely to see a couple tight arms come out of the bullpen in high leverage situations, which does not always play out well for the Phillies.

Walker Starts Hot

The Mets will counter with RHP Taijuan Walker, who has been a bit of a revelation for New York.

With Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard shelved with injuries, Walker has stepped in with a 2.14 ERA, helping his team to a 3-1 record thus far in his four starts. In fact, dating back to last season with Toronto, Walker’s mates have won eight of his last 10 starting nods.

He has owned the Phillies in two career starts, including a 4-3 Mets win earlier this season. In those two outings, he allowed just two runs on seven hits, while striking out 16 batters across 10.1 IP. Current Phils have hit a blustery .128 (5-for-39) off of Walker in his career with no home runs, including a collective 1-for-9 (.111) with zero extra base hits from Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto. With Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura already out, coupled with the questionable statuses of Harper and Realmuto, the Phillies lineup could be at a huge disadvantage in this one tonight.

Despite the loss last night, the Mets are actually 5-2 in their last seven division games and have won four of their last five against Philadelphia. The Mets have also won five of their last seven against quality pitchers with sub 1.15 WHIPs and Wheeler fits that bill with his 1.11 WHIP.

By contrast, the Phillies, who won 2-1 last night, are just 6-13 in their last 19 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and winless in their last five after allowing two runs or less prior. The Phils are also just 2-7 in their last nine games against sub .500 teams and 2-5 in their last seven against the NL East.

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick

Look for Philly to slide to just 1-7 in their last eight Game 2 of series this season with a tough loss in this one.

Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Mets ML

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