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Mets vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 21st

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 21st, 2025 · 1:00 PM EDT

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The Phillies massive series against the Mets started with a bang yesterday, with the Phillies winning 10-2 in what ended up being an electric game thanks to a six-run seventh inning. Thankfully, we managed to get a home run on the board as well, with Nick Castellanos coming through late with a two-run home run.

Mets vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props

As for today, Mick Abel is pitching for the Phillies and Griffin Canning for the Mets. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15, with Fox on the call. Tonight is another game with positive home run conditions at the Bank, so let’s hope to have more success with our favorite MLB home run predictions today for Mets vs. Phillies Saturday, June 21.

Brandon Nimmo to Hit a Home Run (+290) BetMGM

The Phillies starting pitching is so good that is is always a little scary to take a batter to hit a home run against them, but, as we saw yesterday, the bullpen is always liable to give one up if the starter does not. As for Nimmo, he has a good opportunity against Mick Abel, could get one off the bullpen but, most importantly, is swinging a hot bat.

He was the only player in the entire game yesterday that had more than two HardHits (he had 3), and all three of those were 100+ mph off the bat. He had the second-hardest hit of the game when he ripped a single that was 109.8 mph EV, and another double that traveled 396 feet. Both of those were hit off of Zack Wheeler, which makes it even more impressive.

While Abel has been great as a starter for the Phillies, he certainly is no Zack Wheeler. He has allowed two home runs to lefties in 40 at-bats, with a 48.28% HardHit rate and a combined 70% fly-ball + line-drive rate. With Nimmo hitting well, he is a great selection to go yard in Philly tonight.

Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+360) BetMGM

Time to go back to one of our favorites, taking Max Kepler to hit a home run off a right-handed pitcher who’s fastball can get tagged. Kepler did not have any HardHits yesterday, but he had two the day before that and four back on 6/17. Overall, he has six barrels and 19 HardHits in his last 12 games, which are respectable numbers.

Canning is similar to Abel in that he is not horrible, but he can be had by a left-handed hitter. He has allowed a home run every 27.80 at-bats, which is not among the worst in the MLB but nothing to be afraid of either. He has allowed five home runs to lefties, three have been hit off his 4-seam fastball, which he only throws 34% of the time. Left-handed hitters also have an absurd 90% HardHit rate against his 4-seamer, so if he misses his location, lefties can send his fastball to the moon.

As has been mentioned a bunch of times recently, Kepler has the best numbers on the entire Phillies roster against the 4-seam fastball from RHP. His barrel rate is 28.8%, HardHit rate is 67.3%, with a fly-ball rate of 44.2% as well. So, not only does he hit them hard, but he sends them in the air, which is perfect for a situation like tonight with a hitters park and positive weather conditions.