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Numbers Suggest High-Scoring Game in Brewers vs. Phillies Series Opener
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies have another tough test on their hands at home this weekend against the Brewers.
Milwaukee comes into Citizens Bank Park on a four-game winning streak in which 20 runs were scored against the Pirates and Red Sox.
It’s not exactly an ideal spot for the Phils from a pitching perspective. The bullpen had to work in both games of Thursday’s doubleheader and Taijuan Walker toes the rubber Friday night.
Walker went five innings in his last appearance, but that was also against the Rockies, and, to be fair, I think any of us could toss a few solid frames against the worst team in the majors in its current state.
The Phils could really use five innings out of Walker just to alleviate some pressure on the relievers.
Walker’s allowed 35 hits in 39.1 innings this season, and we know he’s not a strikeout guy, so this might just have to be a game won by the offense.
It doesn’t help Walker that Milwaukee’s best and hottest hitter, Christian Yelich, is 4-for-8 with a home run in his career against him.
There’s no data for the Phillies against Brewers starter DL Hall. It’s believed Quinn Priester might make an appearance behind Hall. Hall, a lefty, has one appearance in the majors of 2.1 innings from Monday.
If you’re looking for hot hitters, Nick Castellanos and Milwaukee’s Sal Frelick are two of 21 batters with eight or more hits in the last week.
Castellanos is crushing lefties this season with a .319 batting average and .833 OPS. With Hall expected to pitch at least one time through the order, he’s the No. 1 target.
Castellanos is +115 to go over his 1.5 total bases prop and he sits at a pretty juicy +575 to hit a home run at Bet365.
Castellanos is one of four Phillies with 20+ hits against lefties, which makes the decision to start Hall a bit more surprising. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the other three. They all rank in the top 11 of hits against lefties in the majors.
If you want to have some fun with a Same Game Parlay at PA sports betting apps, or NJ betting apps, look to hits and total bases for all four.
The winds will be blowing out to right a bit and the humidity is going to kick in more as the game goes on with storms approaching, so that should help with elevated baseballs.
The full game over sits at 9.5, which is the way to go from a side or total perspective with all of the elements in play here.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.