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Phillies a -190 Favorite Over Fish, Behind Somewhat-Consistent Jesus Luzardo
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Jesus Luzardo’s made his best case to be high up in the Phillies postseason rotation over his last three starts.
He’s struck out 24 batters over 21 innings and only allowed 10 earned runs. That’s good enough to be the No. 3 starter in the postseason above Aaron Nola., but we’ll table that discussion until the Phils lock down the first-round bye.
As for Wednesday’s game against the Marlins, the Phillies are -190 on the money line behind Luzardo, who struck out eight and conceded two earned runs in six innings against Miami on September 6th.
Miami is sending Ryan Weathers to the mound for his eighth appearance of the season. He’s had some injury issues and gave up eight hits and three earned runs to the Rockies in his last appearance.
The -190 money line may be too low on the odds spectrum for some of you, but given the matchup, it’s a solid bet to make.
I’d also look into Luzardo’s strikeout prop. His props have been listed higher than Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez because he’s a 206-strikeout pitcher. His prop for Wednesday is Over/Under 6.5 Ks with the Over at even money.
The Phillies money line, combined with the alternate line of Over 5.5 Luzardo strikeouts, gets you to +116. Luzardo to have Over 6.5 Ks and the Phillies ML sits at +185.
I’d attack the right-handed bats in the Phillies lineup for player props. Righties have a .257 batting average against Weathers, while lefties are only hitting .160 against him.
All roads lead back to Harrison Bader until he stops producing. Alec Bohm is worth looking into as well.
I’d pair Bader Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs, Bohm O1.5 H/R/R and Luzardo o5.5 strikeouts to get you to +368 and qualify for the two profit boosts available on ESPN Bet for Wednesday’s MLB action. The magic number for a first round bye is one, so it only takes a Phillies win or Dodgers loss from here to seal the deal.
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Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.