Legal Sports Betting

Phillies a Significant Favorite Behind Zack Wheeler in Series Opener vs. Red Sox

By Joe Tansey

Published: Jul 21st, 2025 · 1:27 PM EDT

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Just a few years ago, a Walker Buehler vs. Zack Wheeler pitching matchup would have been an NLCS-worthy showdown.

On Monday, it’s a lopsided matchup that significantly favors the Phillies, who are -220 on the money line against the Red Sox.

Buehler’s time in Boston hasn’t been great. He comes into Citizens Bank Park with a 6.12 ERA and an 8.66 ERA away from Fenway Park.

The former Dodgers hurler allowed seven or eight hits in three of his last four road starts, so that’s a good trend for building bets on Monday night. Buehler’s hits allowed prop sits at 5.5 with the over at +132 over at bet365.

Buehler’s let up at least six hits on eight occasions in 2025, and he’s going up against a Phillies lineup that’s had some relative success against him. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have both homered off Buehler. Bryson Stott is 2-for-2 and Nick Castellanos owns a .222 batting average in nine ABs versus the right-hander.

Left-handed hitters have been especially unkind to Buehler. They have a .324 batting average and six home runs against him. Righties have hit 11 home runs, but only post a .220 average.

That’s a long-winded way to say Schwarber and Harper are the players to approach for prop bets. Schwarber is +280 and Harper is +325 to hit a home run at BetMGM.

BetMGM has an Any Sport Parlay Boost Token available for Monday. That’s for Pennsylvania sports betting and NJ betting apps. I would use Schwarber or Harper home run as one of the pieces for that parlay if you want to use player props.

The Phillies money line, or the team total over 4.5, are both solid bets as well given Buehler’s struggles.

bet365 has a 30 percent Same Game Parlay boost available for you to integrate Wheeler props along with all the hitting bets.

Wheeler’s strikeout prop sits at a whopping 8.5 for good reason. The Red Sox have the third-most strikeouts in Major League Baseball behind the Rockies and Angels.

Wheeler produced at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings, and while the full prop is attainable, I’d mix in Wheeler 7+ Ks with the Phillies money line and Harper to get a hit, a bet that sits at +145 before the boost.

Adding in a Harper home run to the Wheeler 7Ks/Phils ML SGP puts you at +525, while a Schwarbomb puts the SGP at +475, both of which are solid options if you’d like a bigger price on a SGP given the matchup in play.