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Phillies vs. Giants Odds, Picks, Player Props (July 9)
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The Phillies will look to avoid a San Francisco sweep this afternoon when they send Jesús Luzardo (7-5, 4.44 ERA) to the mound opposite the struggling Justin Verlander (0-6, 4.84 ERA). Their latest Oracle Park nightmare featured a three-run walk-off homer by Patrick Bailey in a 4-3 loss last night, making it 18 defeats in their last 21 games there. Now, they’ll turn to Luzardo who has not made consecutive quality starts in nearly six weeks and is coming off a two-inning outing against the Reds last week.
San Francisco has been on a tear, winning six of its last seven games, and has been particularly tough to beat on its home turf, sporting a 27-17 record. The Phillies, meanwhile, come in at .500 on the road at 23-23.
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Bet Type | Philadelphia Phillies Odds | San Francisco Giants Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+135) | +1.5 (-167) |
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Total Runs | Over 8 (-118) | Under 8 (-102) |
Odds as of July 9, 2025 (9:30 a.m.) from BetMGM.
The odds position the Philadelphia Phillies as moderate road favorites, but given their recent play at Oracle Park and Luzardo’s wild inconsistencies, that seems almost hard to believe.
Giants vs Phillies Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown some interesting movement heading into this contest. The Philadelphia Phillies opened at -139 on the moneyline but have since shifted to -130, while the San Francisco Giants moved from +115 to +110. This indicates that despite the public heavily backing the Phillies (63.5% of moneyline bets at BetMGM as of the publication of this post), some respected money has come in on the Giants, causing books to adjust. This reverse line movement is often a signal of sharp action favoring the home underdog.
The total has seen movement toward the Over, shifting from a flat 8 runs at -110 on both sides to the Over being juiced to -118. This is in line with public sentiment, as over 74% of bets are on the Over, likely driven by the Phillies’ offensive reputation and Verlander’s high ERA. However, given the pitcher-friendly conditions at Oracle Park, this public lean could be creating value on the under.
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Giants vs Phillies – Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History
Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs. Justin Verlander
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | .107 | .242 | .143 | .385 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .308 | .308 | .615 | .923 |
| Nick Castellanos | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .211 | .200 | .421 | .621 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .222 | .417 | .556 | .973 |
| Alec Bohm | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .333 | .583 |
| Bryson Stott | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .100 | .182 | .100 | .282 |
| Bryce Harper | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .429 | .529 | .500 | 1.029 |
| Trea Turner | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .333 | .500 | .333 | .833 |
| Brandon Marsh | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | .286 | .500 | .429 | .929 |
San Francisco Giants Career Statistics vs. Jesús Luzardo
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 2.500 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Casey Schmitt | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Wilmer Flores | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .417 | .462 | .417 | .879 |
| Willy Adames | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 | .250 | .417 | .667 |
| Patrick Bailey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1.250 |
| Luis Matos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Heliot Ramos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .400 | .600 |
Giants vs Phillies July 9 Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 (O -219 | U +159) | 1.5 (O +123 | U -170) | Yes (+457) | 0.5 (O +144 | U -198) | 0.5 (O +109 | U -149) |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 1.5 (O +142 | U -195) | 1.5 (O -109 | U -125) | Yes (+633) | 0.5 (O +176 | U -244) | 0.5 (O -112 | U -125) |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 (O -166 | U +120) | 0.5 (O -167 | U +120) | Yes (+334) | 0.5 (O +173 | U -241) | 0.5 (O -102 | U -136) |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 (O -202 | U +147) | 1.5 (O +117 | U -161) | Yes (+440) | 0.5 (O +146 | U -204) | 0.5 (O +116 | U -164) |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | 0.5 (O -185 | U +134) | 0.5 (O -175 | U +126) | Yes (+553) | 0.5 (O +186 | U -260) | 0.5 (O +139 | U -195) |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 (O -249 | U +179) | 1.5 (O +111 | U -149) | Yes (+450) | 0.5 (O +169 | U -237) | 0.5 (O +107 | U -146) |
MLB batter props as of July 9, 2025 from consensus data.
Giants vs Phillies July 9 Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | INNINGS PITCHED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (SF) | 4.5 (O +105 | U -133) | 2.5 (O +110 | U -161) | N/A | 4.5 (O -154 | U +110) | 5.1 (O +105 | U -143) |
| Jesús Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 (O -146 | U +111) | 1.5 (O -170 | U +125) | N/A | 4.5 (O -112 | U -122) | 5.2 (O -114 | U -116) |
MLB pitcher props as of July 9, 2025 from consensus data & MGM.
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Prediction
This matchup presents a classic case of a hot home team getting value as an underdog. While Justin Verlander’s 0-6 record and 4.84 ERA are concerning, Giants have been finding ways to win, particularly at Oracle Park where they boast a stellar 27-17 record. The Phillies, meanwhile, are now 3-18 in their last 21 contests there. The prospect of getting a hot Giants team where they simply have an outrageous home field advantage at plus-money is something that’s hard to pass up.
Several key trends support backing the home team. The Giants have won their last four home games against teams with a winning record and are an impressive 7-2 in their last nine home games following a win.
Conversely, the Phillies have struggled as road favorites, posting a dismal 3-7 record in their last 10 such games. The reverse line movement on the moneyline, where odds shifted toward the Giants despite heavy public betting on the Phillies, is a strong indicator that sharp money is on San Francisco.
Given the Giants’ momentum and proven ability to win tight games at home, taking them on the moneyline at plus-money is the premier bet. For a safer option, the +1.5 run line is also a strong play.
Picks:
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+110)
- San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-167)
Phillies vs Giants Public Betting Splits
| Market | Away Team (Phillies) Bets | Home Team (Giants) Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 63.55% | 36.45% |
| Run Line | 71.38% (-1.5) | 28.62% (+1.5) |
| Total | Over: 74.63% | Under: 25.37% |
Data as of July 9, 2025.
Recent Series Action: Giants Walk-Off Phillies
The previous game in this series was an instant classic, ending in a 4-3 victory for the San Francisco Giants. The Philadelphia Phillies appeared poised for victory after Kyle Schwarber blasted a two-run homer in the top of the ninth to give his team a 3-1 lead. However, the Giants mounted a stunning comeback in the bottom of the frame against Phillies reliever Jordan Romano.
After a leadoff double and a single, catcher Patrick Bailey delivered the decisive blow—a line drive to right-center that resulted in a game-winning, three-run, inside-the-park home run, sending Oracle Park into a frenzy. The dramatic finish highlighted the Giants’ clutch performance at home and exposed cracks in the Phillies’ late-inning bullpen.