Legal Sports Betting

Phillies Going for Third Straight Win Over Mets as a -165 Favorite Behind Cristopher Sanchez

By Joe Tansey

Published: Sep 10th, 2025 · 3:18 PM EDT

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The Phillies can lock up the series win against the Mets with a victory on Wednesday night.

They’re a -165 money line favorite at ESPN Bet behind Cristopher Sanchez, who faces Clay Holmes.

Sanchez has been really good at home over the last two years, but especially over his last three appearances inside Citizens Bank Park.

The left-handed hurler allowed three earned runs across 21.1 innings. He’s scattered 18 hits in that span, but he’s also fanned 26 batters.

Sanchez’s strikeout prop currently sits at Over/Under 5.5. The outs recorded prop isn’t yet up on ESPN Bet, but I’d expect it to be somewhere in the 18.5 range.

After Ranger Suarez’s 12-strikeout performance Wednesday night, I’d heavily look into Sanchez recording at least six punchouts. He’s pitching at home and the Mets struggled with the Phillies’ left-handed starter 24 hours ago.

If the outs recorded prop is either 18.5 or 19.5, I’d take the over because of how consistent Sanchez has been at The Bank. He’s also made a strong case to be the Game 1 starter in any playoff series with Zack Wheeler out for the series. Actually, I don’t know if there’s much of a debate about that right now.

For PA betting promos, and NJ sportsbook promos, ESPN Bet has one for a four-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +400 or higher to return $10 in bonus bets if a home run is hit.

Holmes and Sanchez combined to not allow a single home run since August 1st. Holmes is more susceptible to the home run ball, though, since the Phillies are coming off a monster night at the plate.

Wednesday’s Mets starter has allowed 12 home runs this season, seven of which have come against lefties. You guessed it; Kyle Schwarber has a home run in his career against Holmes.

Now that the weight of chasing a 50-homer season is off Schwarber’s shoulders, he could swing a little freer at the plate and go yard again on Wednesday. Schwarber is +325 to homer at ESPN Bet. That’s a bet I’d take on its own because of the price.

As for the qualifying SGP, I’d take Phillies ML, Sanchez o5.5 K, Schwarber o1.5 hits/runs/RBIs and Pete Alonso to have one strikeout at +413. I laid out my reasoning for the first three parts of the SGP above. Alonso has nine Ks in the last week and is only 4-for-20 in that stretch.