Legal Sports Betting

Phillies Open as the Slightest of Underdogs on the NLDS Series Line

By Joe Tansey

Published: Oct 2nd, 2025 · 3:49 PM EDT

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The Phillies are a very slight underdog on the NLDS series line.

I’ll be honest here. I’m a little surprised to see the Phils at -105 to win the series at ESPN Bet compared to the Dodgers at -115.

At the start of the week, the Phillies were the clear World Series favorite, but now all of a sudden after the Dodgers beat the Reds, LA is on top of the World Series futures board. The Dodgers are +425 while the Phillies are +450.

It’s a fascinating line because the Phillies are the best home team in the majors and the Dodgers have one clear deficiency with their bullpen, which looked less-than-great in both contests with the Reds.

It’s a little more confounding when you see the Phillies at -125 on the Game 1 money line.

The Game 1 line is a nice sign of respect for Cristopher Sanchez inside Citizens Bank Park. I’ve detailed the strengths of the Phillies at home with Sanchez on the mound countless times this year. Sanchez owns a 1.94 home ERA and the Phils are 13-2 when Sanchez starts at home in 2025.

Shohei Ohtani is throwing Game 1 for the Dodgers. He went more than five innings once since his return to the mound. That was in the regular-season finale against the DBacks.

An interesting tidbit from Ohtani’s starts: The Dodgers are 1-7 in the last eight games he’s started.

Both Sanchez and Ohtani are listed at Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts thrown. Ohtani had five strikeouts in five innings versus the Phils on September 16th. The Phils scored nine runs in the four innings after Ohtani departed, a first-hand look at how bad the Dodgers bullpen can be.

Sanchez punched out six batters, scattered seven hits and allowed four earned runs over seven innings in the same game that Ohtani started. I’d look into Sanchez’s outs recorded prop once it’s released. If it sits at 17.5 or lower, I’d take it. I can still be convinced of the over at 18.5, but that would take a near-perfect first few innings for the left-hander to keep his pitch count low.

Batter props are going to be interesting because the best players to take from the Phillies’ lineup are probably going to be the ones that get multiple hacks at the Dodgers bullpen.

I wouldn’t go too crazy on NJ or PA sports betting apps for Game 1 because of the potential for a low-scoring start, but Bryce Harper always seems to have a flair for the dramatic. He’s +350 to hit a home run at ESPN Bet.

I know a lot of you will look into Kyle Schwarber at +210 to hit a home run, but I’d take a look at Schwarber to get a hit at -160. His hit line is typically one of the lower ones, but I wouldn’t expect the Dodgers to pitch around him much with Harper hitting directly behind him.