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Phillies Open Final Regular Season Homestand a -240 Favorite Against Technically-Still-Alive Marlins
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies start their final regular-season homestand of 2025 on Tuesday against the Marlins.
It’s no real surprise that the Phils are a -240 money line favorite at ESPN Bet with Cristopher Sanchez on the hill inside Citizens Bank Park.
What’s astonishing is that the Marlins are still technically alive in the NL wild-card race after winning 10 of their last 11. Okay, they are four games out of the final wild-card spot, but they’re still kind of fighting for something.
But so are the Phils. They lead the race for the No. 2 seed by four games over the Dodgers. The assumption is the Phils will clinch the first-round bye prior to the weekend series against Minnesota.
Sanchez allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his home starts in 2025. He’s got a 2.22 ERA at CBP and opposing hitters have a .210 batting average versus the left-hander at The Bank.
Sanchez’s props sit at Over/Under 18.5 outs, O/U 5.5 strikeouts and O/U 5.5 hits allowed at ESPN Bet.
The Phillies’ current ace pitched seven full innings in three of his last four starts and he’s gone seven and eight innings in two starts versus the Marlins. The Over 18.5 outs sits at a juicy +135. You have to hit that given the trends:
I’d be less inclined to go after the strikeout prop, though. Sanchez recorded nine strikeouts in 15 innings versus the Marlins in 2025 and Miami has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
Edward Cabrera is on the other side of the pitching matchup. He’s an up-and-down pitcher. He had two double-digit strikeout games in August, but he’s also coming off a five-run concession in 4.1 innings against the Mets.
Cabrera fanned five Phillies on June 19th. He had 44 strikeouts in 34.2 innings in August, but he’s coming off an elbow injury and hasn’t pitched since August 30th.
I wouldn’t go too hard on Phillies batter props because there is a chance Cabrera has a few strong innings and keeps the Marlins in a low-scoring game.
I do think you have to ride Harrison Bader’s hot bat in some capacity. Bader is tied for the MLB lead with 19 hits over the last 15 days.
Bader to record a hit and Sanchez o18.5 outs gets you to +233 in a SGP at ESPN Bet.
I’d also look into Bader’s o1.5 hits/runs/RBIs at -135. If the Phils are going to score tonight, I have to think Bader will be involved.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.