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Phillies Return from All-Star Break a Huge Betting Favorite
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Welcome back, baseball!
The Phillies return to the diamond on Friday as a significant favorite behind Jesus Luzardo to start a six-game home stand versus the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox.
The Phils are trying to avoid the swoon they faced out of the All-Star break last year, when they went 3-9 between July 19th and 31st. If they do that again in 2025, we’re going to quickly pivot to who the third-string left guard will be for the Eagles.
We return to PA sports betting and New Jersey sports betting apps after a slow week in which Kinkead spent his time on online casinos. The Phillies are -220 at bet365 behind Luzardo. As of 2 p.m. ET, the Angels haven’t officially listed a starting pitcher. It’s assumed to be either Jose Soriano or Kyle Hendricks. The money line shouldn’t change much regardless of who the Angels throw. (Kinkead: finally we have a starter, it’s Ryan Zeferjahn in a bullpen game for LA)
bet365 has an Instant Payout promotion on MLB money line bets if your team goes up by five runs. I’d recommend the Phils regardless of pitcher, but I’d definitely use that if Hendricks is the starter since he has a road ERA over five.
The clear pitching advantage with Luzardo over either potential Angels starter comes with strikeouts. The Angels rank second in the majors in team strikeouts. They are 24th in strikeouts versus left-handed pitchers, but there’s still a ton of strikeout potential for Luzardo, whose strikeout prop sits at over/under 6.5.
bet365 also has a 50 percent Super Profit Boost available for Friday’s MLB slate.
Luzardo to have 6+ strikeouts, a number he’s hit in four of the last six starts, Phillies money line, and Trea Turner 2+ total bases gets you to +325 prior to the boost. Turner ranks in a tie for 12th in hits at home and he’s 22nd in the majors in hits against right-handed pitching.
BetMGM is once again offering its Big Fly Fridays promotion. If you bet on the player who hits the longest home run on Friday, you win a share of $100,000 in bonus bets.
Kyle Schwarber is the obvious pick after his heroics at the All-Star Game. While Mike Trout seems like a strong pick because of the playing back home narrative, Trout has a .171 career batting average in 41 career at-bats against the Phillies.
For what it’s worth, Trout is +150 to have Under 0.5 hits on Friday night at BetMGM.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.