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Phillies Start Significantly Easier Series a -200 Favorite Against Orioles
By Joe Tansey
Published:
On paper, the Phillies have a significantly easier series on deck at Citizens Bank Park this week.
They’re a -200 money line favorite behind Jesus Luzardo against the Orioles, who went 1-2 and scored seven runs at Wrigley this weekend after the MLB trade deadline.
The biggest takeaway from Baltimore’s series that applies to Monday is the eight strikeouts the Orioles had when facing Matt Boyd, who like Luzardo, is a left-handed pitcher.
Baltimore lost a very good bat against lefties in Ramon Laureano, and while there still is some pop at the top of the order, the bottom of the lineup has plenty of strikeout potential. Baltimore holds the sixth-highest strikeout rate against lefties.
The strikeouts weren’t there for Luzardo in his last start, but the White Sox don’t whiff a ton. He’s back at home on Monday, where he fanned seven batters in each of his last two starts.
The Over 6.5 strikeouts prop for Luzardo is absolutely in play here. I’d guard against running a strikeout ladder just because of the variance involved in Luzardo’s starts.
The Phillies lefty allowed 15 earned runs in his last three home starts. Orioles starter Cade Povich gave up 20 earned runs in his last 34 innings before he went on the injured list with a hip injury.
At PA sports betting apps, and NJ betting apps, I’d look more to hits and total bases props to fulfill the requirements for bet365’s 30 percent Same Game Parlay boost.
Kyle Schwarber is an obvious pick to get a hit because he is tied for the Phillies team lead in hits off lefties. Trea Turner also has 40 hits off southpaws, but I’d go with Nick Castellanos, who is third in that category, over Turner because Casty is on a four-game hitting streak.
Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg is 19-for-36 against lefties this season. I’d add him into the SGP as well since righties have a .277 batting average versus Luzardo.
A Schwarber/Castellanos/Westburg hit SGP sits at +175 before the boost. An Over 1.5 total bases SGP for the three players is +650 before the boost is applied.
As always, a Schwarber home run bet should be in play. I’d use that as one pick for BetMGM’s Any Sport Parlay Boost Token.
I’d pair Schwarber with Christian Yelich (red-hot Brewers against horrible starter Erick Fedde) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (wind blowing out at Coors) to hit a home run. That’s a cool +8332 prior to the boost being applied.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.