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Phillies vs. Astros Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 24th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 24th, 2025 · 9:27 AM EDT

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Generally, for these Phillies games we like to dive into the best home run props specifically, but this is about as bad of a game you can get when asking for hitters to hit home runs, at least from a pitcher perspective. We have two lefties on the mound, both of which are contact, ground-ball type of pitchers that rarely allow home runs in Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez.

That does make this a fun game to watch, and hopefully the Phillies can continue this hot stretch. The season hit a low getting swept in back-to-back series the Brewers and Pirates, but, since then, the Phillies have won four straight series and are fresh off taking two of three from the Mets.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET, and please check out our favorite MLB player prop picks for the Phillies vs. Astros today, Tuesday June 24th.

Ranger Suarez over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140) BetMGM Sportsbook

The odds at -140 are about as high as we’ll go, but the line at 4.5 is simply too low for Suarez and his strikeout prop at PA sports betting apps and the like.

Since coming back from injury on 5/4, Suarez has made nine starts. He has gone over the 4.5 strikeout number in eight of those nine starts, and actually got six or more in six of those as well. He has a strikeout rate of 22.7% in these nine starts, which won’t put him up there with Paul Skenes in terms of K rate, of course, but that is a respectable, slightly above-average number.

This prop was something we were on in an even worse matchup against the Blue Jays back on 6/13, and he ended that game with six strikeouts. For context, since 5/1 the Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate against LHP at 17%, and Suarez still managed to get six of them to K. The Astros, meanwhile, are still below-average, but have a strikeout rate of 21.8% in this same timeframe, which is 20th in the MLB.

So, this is more of a play backing a line that is too low as opposed to fading a strikeout heavy team, but Suarez should manage to get five or more guys to whiff tonight.

Cam Smith 2+ Total Bases (+155) BetMGM Sportsbook

Despite expecting Suarez to pitch a good game, Smith is a batter on the Astros we like to have some success tonight. Smith is a young hitter for the Astros who has been raking at the plate recently, looking into his advanced numbers.

Since 6/8, he has played in 14 games and has an impressive 27 HardHits in that stretch, with a HardHit rate of 58.7%. He, by far, leads the Astros in HardHits over the last 14 and seven days. He also crushes left-handed pitching, as his barrel rate, slugging, OPS, ISO Rate and wRC+ are all significantly higher against lefties than they are against righties, as detailed below

	RHP	LHP
Barrel Rate	3.8%	27.3%
Slugging	.348	.686
OPS	.676	1.067
ISO Rate	.082	.429
wRC+	95	195

The good news is that he also strikes out over 30% against LHP, so it is quite possible he ends the day going 1-for-3 against Suarez with one double and two strikeouts, which would be the best of both worlds. Either way, Smith is the batter most likely to have success against Suarez tonight.