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Phillies vs. Marlins Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 16th
By Matt Modi
Published:
The Phillies hot streak continued yesterday, completing the sweep against the Blue Jays with a convincing 11-4 victory. They have now won five of their last six after dropping nine of 10. Not only that, but we managed to cash another home run prediction thanks to Alec Bohm.
As for today, the Phillies head to Miami to take on the Marlins. Mick Abel is on the mound for the Phils, with Sandy Alcantara pitching for the Marlins. For this article specifically, we will be diving into the best MLB player props for Phillies vs. Marlins, including the best MLB home run predictions.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+320) BetMGM
We have been circling the wagon a little bit with Schwarber, going with him a couple of times to hit a home run last week without any success, only for him to hit a home run on one of the days we did not have him. Hopefully, we can get him correct tonight.
Alcantara was once a Cy Young caliber pitcher (he, quite literally, won the Cy Young in 2022), but he has struggled this season coming back from tommy john surgery. His 7.14 ERA might be a tad unlucky, but even his advanced metrics show a pitcher struggling on the mound with an 8% barrel rate and 4.71 SIERA (this stat measures the quality of the batted balls allowed by the pitcher). So, that is all to say that Schwarber should be able to have success against Alcantara.
Admittedly, Alcantara’s home run numbers specifically are not as bad as the rest of his statistics, but he does allow more power to LHH. His HR/9 is 1.55 against lefties, with all his stats across the board being much worse against lefties as well. He does not have one pitch that is considered his “home run pitch,” instead having a wide pitch arsenal that can all get hit hard.
Normally, taking Schwarber to hit a home run requires odds that start with a two instead of a three, so we are getting decent value on this play as well.
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Brandon Marsh over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) BetMGM
It was tough to find another home run prediction worth taking, so let’s instead head over to the HRR market and back Brandon Marsh, who has quietly been on fire recently. Baseball is essentially made up of a bunch of mini-seasons, and this recent mini-season has been great for Marsh.
It is a small sample size for sure, but he has 19 plate appearances since June 8th, and in that stretch he has a total of nine hits, two of which being doubles, and has added three runs and three RBIs. He is batting a comical .529 in this stretch of games, which is his last six. He would have hit this over in five of those six games, only missing in yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays. He had cashed in five straight prior to that.
Marsh gets the same benefits as Schwarber does going up against Alcantara who struggles against left-handed hitters, while also getting the added benefit of bringing somebody home or getting brought home and scoring a run. Any one of those outcomes would cash this HRR for us.