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Phillies vs. Marlins Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 17th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 17th, 2025 · 5:10 PM EDT

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The Phillies kept their hot streak going yesterday, with a 5-2 victory over the Marlins. Mick Abel threw five innings only giving up one run, while the bullpen finished out the remaining four innings, also allowing one run.

We also managed to have some success with our predictions, thanks to Brandon Marsh for cashing the over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs for us. Schwarber did not go yard to complete the sweep, but still a good night overall.

As for tonight, Jesus Luzaro is on the mound for the Phils, facing off against Cal Quantrill for the Marlins. First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. ET, and for this article specifically we will be providing the best MLB home run predictions for the Marlins vs. Phillies tonight, Tuesday June 17th.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+280) BetMGM

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Eventually, we are going to get a Schwarber home run prediction correct. The strategy here is to continue to ride with him as long as he continues to put up HardHits with a plus pitching matchup, both of which are the case tonight.

Schwarber added two HardHits yesterday, both of which were just under 100 mph exit velocity. Neither had the necessary launch angle to be a real home run threat, but we all know the kind of pop Schwarber has at the plate, so that is not a real concern in the long run. For context, Schwarber has the sixth-fastest bat speed in the MLB, with the ninth-most “blasts”, as calculated by Baseball Savant. Hot take: Kyle Schwarber can hit the baseball hard.

As mentioned earlier, Cal Quantrill is pitching for the Marlins, and Schwarber has had some success against him in the past. It does admittedly go back a couple years, but Schwarber has three career home runs off Quantrill in 17 at-bats.

Quantrill is a sinker thrower, and while Schwarber does not have a single barrel against sinkers this year (in 16 plate appearances), he does have a 53.8% HardHit rate (second-best on the Phillies) with a low strikeout rate of 12.5%, and a ground-ball rate below 40%. So, it does seem a though he has been unlucky with his lack of success against the sinker specifically, which, hopefully changes tonight.

Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+750) BetMGM

We managed to correctly predict Bohm to homer on Sunday, and he is facing a similar situation tonight that he had on Sunday, so here’s hoping we can have similar success. One thing not mentioned about Quantrill is that he is actually worse against right-handed hitters than he is against lefties. To be clear, he is not unhittable against lefties, so Schwarber could still have success against him, but Quantrills numbers are worse when facing righties.

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His barrel rate against RHH is 11.5%, with a HR/9 of 1.91 against right-handed hitters, up from an 8% barrel rate and 0.60 HR/9 against LHH. Bohm also hits sinkers very well, with the best barrel rate 13.9%, HardHit rate (63.9%) and ISO rate (.289) against sinkers from RHP.

That includes the beginning of the year when Bohm could not hit a baseball to save his life, which is not the case now. Over the last seven days, Bohm is one of four batters in the entire MLB that has 13 or more HardHits. He had two hits above 100 mph yesterday, so the hope here is that he is able to connect on one tonight that clears a fence.