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Phillies vs. Marlins Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 18th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 18th, 2025 · 10:03 AM EDT

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Both hot streaks ended yesterday, as the Phillies snapped their five game winning streak with a loss to the Marlins, while we could not get any of our home run predictions to come through. It was a tough game overall for the Phillies, as Jesus Luzardo was not sharp, and their bullpen could not manage to stop the bleeding.

As for today, Adam Mazur is making his first start of the year for the Marlins (who the Phillies should be able to hit up, which we’ll talk about), while Ranger Suarez gets the job of making sure the Phillies don’t spiral and lose another one.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, and please read further for our best MLB home run predictions for the Phillies vs. Marlins today, Wednesday June 18th.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+320) BetMGM

Yes, we are going right back to Schwarber. It has been four full games since he hit his last home run, which might not seem like a long time but Schwarber actually averages a home run every three games or so. He also did have a good day at the plate yesterday, despite having nothing to show for it. He had three hits above 100+ mph EV, all three of which were put in the air and two were barreled. One of them would have been a home run in 10/30 stadiums as well, so he was hitting the ball hard.

As mentioned earlier, Adam Mazur is on the mound for the Marlins, and this represents a good opportunity for the Phillies bats. He has not yet pitched in the majors this year, but in roughly 60 innings in AAA he had a HR/9 of 1.66. Last year, he did spend some time in the majors, pitching 33.2 innings for the Padres with a HR/9 of 1.60. None of those numbers are horrible, but digging a little deeper shows a pitcher that was shelled.

He ended last season with a 7.49 ERA, 5.64 xERA, 6.23 FIP, 6.20 xFIP, all with a 6.05 SIERA.

For home runs specifically, the biggest issue for him was allowing batters to put the ball in the air, with an average launch angle of 19.3 degrees and fly-ball rate of 45%.

Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+500) BetMGM

We’ve had some luck going with Kepler to hit a home run recently, so let’s hope we are able to go back to that well with success once again today. While Schwarber is the best hitter on the Phillies, Kepler is probably the hottest hitter on the team over the last month. He leads the team in barrel rate over the last 30 days (20%), a number that number jumps up to 26.3% against RHP specifically in this same timeframe.

It has really been over the last 10 days where Keplers hot streak started. Since 6/8, Kepler has played in nine games and in those nine games he has six barrels and 17 HardHits, with a 27.3% barrel rate and 77.3% HardHit rate.

While he also should have the same positive matchup against Mazur that Schwarber does, one advantage that Kepler has over Schwarber is his ability to crush 4-seam fastballs from right-handed pitching. That is the pitch he should see the most frequently from Mazur.

This has been mentioned a bunch of times in these articles, but Kepler has the best numbers against 4-seamers on the entire season. On the year, he has a 30% barrel rate (leads Phillies), 66% HardHit rate (second-best on Phillies) and a 46% fly-ball rate (leads team) against the 4-seamer from RHP. If he sees a 4-seamer tonight, he should be able to send it to the moon.