Legal Sports Betting

Phillies vs. Marlins Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 19th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 19th, 2025 · 12:17 PM EDT

---

The Phillies managed to bounce back from the loss on Tuesday with a win yesterday, taking down the Marlins 4-2. Ranger Suarez was excellent, pitching seven innings and striking out eight while only giving on one run, while Bryston Stotts three-run shot was enough to give the Phillies the W.

Unfortunately, we could not match the Phillies with success of our own, going 0-2 on our two home run predictions. Luckily, we have a chance for redemption tonight, as the four-game series between the Phillies and Marlins comes to a close.

Cristopher Sanchez in on the mound for the Phillies, with Edward Cabrera pitching for the Marlins. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, and please check out our best MLB player prop picks for Phillies vs. Marlins tonight, including the two best home run predictions.

Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+750) BetMGM

It was tempting to go back to Kyle Schwarber, who continued to hit the baseball hard without a home run yesterday, but we needed a break, which is the healthy thing to do. Luckily, two other batters had three HardHits yesterday, one of which being Castellanos.

After getting benched the day before, Castellanos hit the ball really well last night. He had two of the four hardest hits of the entire game in terms of exit velocity, with a single that was 106.6 mph off the bat, and a double that was 106.4 mph EV. That double, by the way, traveled 403 feet and would have been a home run in 10 of 30 stadiums. Tough luck for Castellanos, but that does make him a good player to back tonight.

Cabrera has been relatively good this year, and he has been excellent recently, but his two home run pitches are the sinker and the curveball. He has only allowed four home runs to RHH this year, two off each of those pitches.

Castellanos has decent numbers against that pitch-mix from RHP, with a 13% barrel rate over the last month.

Note: BetMGM is one of the top PA online casinos and PA online sportsbooks. New users can signup and pick how they get their welcome offer.

Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+875) BetMGM

The third batter that had three HardHit yesterday? That would be one Alec Bohm, who continues his run at the plate.

He, similar to Castellanos, had some unlucky non home run at-bats yesterday, with a double that traveled 395 feet and would have been a home run in 11/30 stadiums. Bohm also had the hardest hit of the game, with a single that was 107.8 mph exit velocity. It did not have the necessary launch angle to be a home run threat, but it is nice to see him continue to hit the ball hard.

Another similarity to Castellanos is his ability to hit sinkers and curveballs, with even better numbers for Bohm against that pitch-mix, especially the sinker. On the year, Bohm has the best barrel rate (12.50%) and HardHit rate (59.46%) on the Phillies against sinkers from RHP. The curveball, meanwhile, he similarly hits hard, with a 57% HardHit rate and a respectable fly-ball rate of 28.57%.

Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) BetMGM

Along with the two home run plays, another good look, unfortunately, is the under strikeout prop for Sanchez. Sanchez has been excellent this year, but this is not the matchup for him to rack up a bunch of strikeouts.

The projected lineup for the Marlins features legitimately all nine right-handed hitters. As good as Sanchez is, he does not strikeout as many righties as he does lefties, and this Marlins lineup has done a good job in the strikeout department against lefties recently.

While they did K eight times against Ranger last night, they only have two batters strikeout at a high rate (which is 25% and above), and only one additional batter with an above-average strikeout rate (which is between 20% and 25%). So, another way of saying this is the six of the nine batters in the projected starting lineup for the Marlins have a strikeout rate below 20% against lefties over the past month.

Sanchez, meanwhile, has only struck out 21% of the RHH he has faced over the last 30 days, which is down from 30% against lefties. Sanchez could still pitch a good game overall, but look for his strikeouts to be slightly down tonight.