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Phillies vs. Mets Player Prop Betting Picks (April 14, 2021)

By Bob Wankel

Published: Apr 14th, 2021 · 12:21 PM EDT

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The Mets swept away the Phillies in Tuesday’s doubleheader and now Philadelphia will turn to former Met Zack Wheeler to exact some revenge on Wednesday night. With first-place on the line in the National League East matchup, this is an important early regular season contest.

With plenty of ways to bet on this game on the board, let’s take a look at the best Phillies vs. Mets player prop bets this April 14, 2021 showdown.

Phillies vs. Mets Player Prop Picks (April 14, 2021)

Zack Wheeler will look to rebound following a short start in Atlanta on Friday night. Following a dominant performance against Atlanta in the opening series, Wheeler struggled to replicate his effectiveness six days later. This time around, he will face a new, but familiar opponent in the Mets.

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Wheeler will be opposed by Mets lefty David Peterson, who was roughed up by this struggling Phillies lineup a week ago.

The Philadelphia offense will look to rebound from two Tuesday losses in which it went just 12-for-52 with one extra-base hits. Unsurprisingly, the lineup generated just three runs over 15 total innings in the pair of losses.

With the setup out of the way, let’s jump into our Phillies vs. Mets prop picks.

Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (DraftKings Sportsbook -125)

Wheeler should be highly motivated on multiple fronts for this one. Beyond his team desperately needing a win today after dropping both ends of yesterday’s doubleheader, Wheeler enters off a loss himself and will also be facing his former team.

In 2020, the righty’s first season with the Phillies, he faced his former mates three times and produced three quality starts. He only struck out 13 Mets in 20.1 IP across those three starts, but in a goofy, shortened season, we aren’t going to dwell on that.

Instead, we are encouraged by the length he provided the Phillies in those starts by averaging nearly seven innings per outing. The Phillies desperately need a similar performance tonight. Over the last eight games, Phillies starters have averaged less than five innings per start.

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Wheeler went seven innings in his first start this season and should come in here fresh after lasting just 4.2 IP against Atlanta on Friday, which happened in part because Joe Girardi mistakenly burned a second mound visit during the fifth inning, forcing Wheeler out of the game.

He has tossed 90+ pitches in both of his outings, so we can expect more where that came from tonight as well.

The Mets have topped four runs just once this season, so it is unlikely we will see them uproot Wheeler early tonight.

If he stays out there for six-plus innings, we like our odds to reach six strikeouts and win this prop bet. After all, Wheeler has 793 career strikeouts in 832 innings pitched, good for a solid .953 K/IP rate. In his three full seasons through his MLB career, he has 561 strikeouts in 563 innings, jumping that K/IP rate up to .996.

Again, if Wheeler can last six-plus innings, we should cash this one. We should believe the odds will be in his favor to do so, too, as the Phils had to use five bullpen arms yesterday in the doubleheader and would probably like some guys fresh for an early-start day game tomorrow against Jacob deGrom.

Thus, Wheeler is more likely to be shown a longer leash today than Zach Eflin will be tomorrow.

Dating back to last season, Wheeler has reached at least six strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. Mets batters have struck out 57 times in 60 innings played this season, again, very close to that strikeout per inning ratio that we are searching for tonight.

I also have to wonder whether we see an altered Mets lineup, with Michael Conforto taking that pitch to the wrist and a noon game looming tomorrow — the Mets are 0-2 in deGrom starts this season and probably want to go all-in to ensure that mark doesn’t become 0-3.

Rhys Hoskins to Get a Hit and Phillies to Win (PointsBet +145)

After getting swept yesterday in the doubleheader by these Mets and, thus, dropping into a tie for first with New York in the NL East, the Phillies know they need this one.

Upping the ante even further is the fact that they face arguably MLB’s best pitcher tomorrow afternoon. If Philly hopes to avoid a four-game sweep and their first trip below .500 this season, you have to believe tonight is an all-out effort.

Wheeler is a dark horse NL Cy Young candidate and is paired up with Peterson, who the Phillies smacked around last week.

Philadelphia could not ask for a better set up tonight.

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Now, assuming they do get the much needed victory tonight, Rhys Hoskins will almost assuredly have to play a part.

Hoskins has had at least one hit in all six of the Phils’ wins this season.

He hits in the 2-hole for the most part, meaning he’s getting ample opportunities to bat. He’s also using those chances to go up there and swing the bat. In fact, he earned his first walk of 2021 yesterday, 10 games and nearly 40 at-bats into the season

In short, we have a guy who has walked in just 2.3% of his PAs thus far playing a team in which he’s gone 7-for-17 (.412) against this season. Hard to believe we would need much more convincing here, but I suppose it’s also worth noting that Hoskins tagged Peterson for three hits in three at-bats last week, including two doubles and a homerun.

That moves Hoskins to 4-for-5 lifetime against the lefty, a foreboding stat for Mets fans, as Hoskins also happens to lead MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching since the start of 2020.