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Ranger Suarez Facing Padres with Opportunity to Show Everyone Why He Should Have Been an All-Star
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Should-be All-Star Ranger Suarez makes his final start before the Midsummer Classic in Friday’s series opener against the San Diego Padres.
It’s a shame Ranger hasn’t been named to the National League All-Star team, and while it certainly would be nice to see his name on the roster, it makes no sense for him to go to Atlanta because he won’t pitch. The same can be said about Cristopher Sanchez, who gets the ball on Sunday. Saturday starter Zack Wheeler probably won’t pitch in the ASG either.
Anyway, the Phils are a -165 money line favorite against the Padres and Ryan Bergert, a 25-year-old righty who has gone past the fifth inning once in the last month.
Suarez has been chugging along, delivering quality start after quality start, but there is a specific way to bet him against the Padres.
Suarez only went five innings in his last start as a preventative measure by Rob Thomson to save his arm. I’d be hesitant to bet the Over 17.5 outs, especially at the -185 price and how long his last appearance lasted.
I would look more into the under on Suarez’s earned runs allowed prop. The under 1.5 sits at +125. He’s allowed a single earned run in each of his last four starts. Suarez to record a win at +100 is the other angle to approach.
The Padres have the third-fewest strikeouts in baseball, so I absolutely wouldn’t attack Suarez’s strikeout prop, even if he’s been consistently in the 6-8 K range.
bet365 has a 50 percent Super Boost for Same Game Parlays on Friday. I would pair the Phillies ML with Suarez u1.5 earned runs and the Phillies to have the most hits. That gets you to +230 before the boost and is one of the better ways to go with PA betting promos and NJ sportsbook promos.
As for the Phillies hitters, the righties are the players to target against Bergert, who has a .230 BA against versus righties compared to a .160 BA against versus lefties.
Trea Turner is tied for the sixth-most hits in road games in the majors, while Alec Bohm ranks in a tie for 21st in that category. A Turner/Bohm hit parlay would be the safe way to go.
BetMGM has a Big Fly Fridays promotion in which you earn a share of $100,000 in bonus bets if you bet on the player with the longest home run on Friday’s slate.
Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper are the obvious choices, but don’t count out Turner as the best Phillies option because of the Bergert splits.
However, I’d probably look elsewhere for the winning hitter for that promotion. The longest home run of the year was hit by Mike Trout in Sacramento. The A’s play the Blue Jays in Sacramento with Luis Severino, who has been tattered by opposing hitters all season, on the mound, so you’re probably best off choosing Vladdy, but if you want a long shot for the promo, Trea is the guy.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.