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Ranger Suarez, Nick Castellanos with Favorable Props for Series Opener Against Blue Jays
By Joe Tansey
Published:
There are actually positives to discuss with the Phillies going into a series.
Winning two out of three this week against the Cubs was a step in the right direction. Now the Blue Jays come to town for a three-game set that looks really favorable for the Phils.
Ranger Suarez is opening the series against Kevin Gausman on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler get the ball the next two days, so if Ranger thrives on Friday night, there’s a good chance the Phils can sweep.
Gausman might be a more notable name on the national level, but Suarez holds the statistical advantage going into Game 1.
Gausman owns a 4.35 ERA away from home and right-handed batters have a .246 average against him. Lefties are only hitting .196, but Kyle Schwarber and Max Kepler have four home runs between them against the Toronto right-hander.
Suarez hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since his first start of the season on May 4th. No one in the Toronto lineup has had more than three at-bats against him and hitters on both sides of the plate are batting under .240 against him.
As we learned during the last series in Toronto, the Blue Jays aren’t a big strikeout team. They rank last in the majors in strikeouts with 462. Only three teams (Toronto, San Diego, and Kansas City) have less than 500 team strikeouts in 2025.
Toronto also ranks third-to-last in away game home runs. The Jay have 25 long balls in 33 road contests. They’re 24th in road OPS as well.
All of those numbers are still in place despite a solid road trip in which they’ve gone 5-1 and scored at least five runs in series vs. Minnesota and St. Louis.
I’d actually look into Suarez’s under 2.5 earned runs allowed and under 5.5 hits allowed. He’s let up five hits or fewer in three of his last six games. He’s gone under 2.5 earned runs allowed in each of his last four starts.
Suarez’s outs recorded prop sits at 18.5. He pitched into the seventh inning in four of the last six appearances, but I’d be more inclined to bet on the props listed above just in case he faces some trouble in one inning that leads to the under on that prop.
As for the hitters, Schwarber is the guy to trust solely based on head-to-head history. He has three home runs in 12 at-bats versus Gausman.
Nick Castellanos has two homers and a .346 average in 26 ABs vs. Gausman, while Trea Turner has a .348 average in 23 ABs against Toronto’s Friday starter.
bet365 has a 30 percent SGP profit boost for Friday’s MLB action. A combination of Turner, Castellanos, and Schwarber to have a hit gets you to +210 before the boost. You could also add in a Suarez prop to Turner and Castellanos to record a hit if you aren’t sure if Schwarber’s out of his slump.
BetMGM has a Home Run Boost token available, which I’d look to use on Schwarber or Castellanos given their previous history against Gausman. There’s also PA online casino and NJ casino apps if nothing about this game strikes your fancy.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.