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Red October: A Look at the Odds and Trends for the Pre-Phillies Wild-Card Round
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The MLB wild-card round kicks off on Tuesday.
It’s the perfect setup to sit back, relax and watch oodles of postseason baseball without any stress before the Phillies enter the fray on Saturday.
There are some juicy matchups, especially in the American League, where the Tigers play the Guardians and the Yankees take on the Red Sox. Reds/Dodgers is the series that matters to us in the National League, while Padres/Cubs is the other matchup.
Tuesday’s Game 1s have the potential to deliver some all-time pitching performances, and if anything, unders are very much in play to begin the three-game series.
Tigers vs. Guardians
Series Price: Tigers (-120), Guardians (+100)
It’s honestly surprising to see the Guardians at even-money on the series line.
Cleveland just engineered one of the all-time comebacks to win the AL Central title, and in turn, Detroit just went through a dramatic collapse. The Guardians took five of six from the Tigers in September to accelerate their division-title surge.
I would highly recommend betting strikeout props in this series. Detroit finished with the fifth-most strikeouts in the majors, the second-most of any playoff qualifier behind the Yankees.
Cleveland’s Game 1 starter, Gavin Williams, had 21 Ks and Game 2 hurler Tanner Bibee had 13 Ks in two matchups with the Tigers over the last two weeks. And then you have Tarik Skubal, who had 20 Ks in three postseason starts last year:
I think you have to play Williams Over 5.5 Ks in Game 1 at ESPN Bet, as well as the first five innings under. A year ago, three of the four WC round Games 1s cleared the first-five and full-game unders.
Padres vs. Cubs
Series Price: Cubs (-120), Padres (+100)
Padres/Cubs is the most even matchup on paper in my eyes.
The Cubs are at a slight disadvantage because NL Rookie of the Year favorite Cade Horton won’t be available to pitch due to an injury. The Padres have Nick Pivetta, Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish lined up for the series.
San Diego owns the edge in playoff experience and pitching, so I think that might be the way to go in a series where the bats are near even.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Series Price: Yankees (-165); Red Sox (+140)
Oh buddy, did we get lucky here.
Two to three days of some pure old-fashioned hatred in a playoff series.
The Yankees are built better for a three-game series than the Red Sox because they’re trotting out Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in Games 1 and 2.
Boston’s best chance to win is Game 1 with Garrett Crochet on the mound. For as good as Fried has been in the regular season, he’s got a 5.10 postseason ERA.
Fried’s been uber-consistent for the Yankees, so it’s hard not to take the Over 17.5 outs recorded, despite the postseason track record, because he went at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and recorded at least 16 outs in each of his three appearances against the Red Sox.
If you want to play a fun narrative, Aaron Judge hit .139 and .184 in the last two postseasons and has a .205 career postseason average with 86 strikeouts. Judge is +120 to have two strikeouts in Game 1.
Reds vs. Dodgers
Series Price: Dodgers (-270); Reds (+220)
Can the Reds’ magic keep going inside the postseason?
That’s the big question here. It’s one thing to make the playoffs with a magical September run, but it’s another thing to be competitive, especially against the Dodgers.
From a Phillies perspective, you want the Reds to win in three games, or at least push the Dodgers to the brink so that LA can use all of its top pitching before it gets to Philadelphia.
Hunter Greene and Blake Snell could both throw flames through five innings and then fizzle out. It’s entirely possible they both destroy their K prop lines and then things get crazy. I think this is the second-best game for a first-five under behind Tigers/Guardians.
Kinkead: I’m smashing the Yank Stank moneyline and then hitting the online slots with this PA online casino bonus.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.