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Red Sox vs. Phillies Home Run Props: Back Schwarber to Stay Hot Wednesday

By Matt Modi

Published: Jul 23rd, 2025 · 11:42 AM EDT

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The Phillies wrap up their three game series against the Red Sox tonight, with a chance to sweep the series if they can manage to get the win tonight. Despite winning both of these games so far, their bats have not quite shown up, scoring four runs yesterday and three on Monday.

Luckily, their pitching has shown up, especially Cristopher Sanchez who pitched a gem last night. He threw a complete game, allowing one run and striking out 10 batters. The Phillies will have Jesus Luzardo on the mound tonight, who is the definition or hit-or-miss. On the other side of the mound is Lucas Giolito, who is having somewhat of a renaissance this year after taking a couple seasons off in the MLB.

As for this article, we will be diving into the best MLB home run predictions for the Red Sox vs. Phillies tonight, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+200) BetMGM

Schwarber came through for us yesterday, and with the rate he is hitting the ball he continues to be a play as long as the situation calls for it. This is actually the best the weather factors have been for a home run of the three games in this series, with nine mph winds blowing directly out of the stadium, as the wind has been blowing in the previous two games. So, despite not a ton of runs being scored in the first two games, there is a chance things open up today.

As for Schwarber, there is not much left to say about him at this point, as he has been fantastic the entire year. He has hit three home runs since the return of the All-Star break, with nine HardHits and three barrels in these five games. The home run he hit yesterday was 102.3 mph off the bat and traveled 410 feet, and he had another hit that was 102.6 mph exit velocity.

Schwarbers ability to put the ball in the air (45.5% fly-ball rate) and also pull the ball (63.6% pull rate) since the ASB has been a big reason for him hitting three home runs in this five game stretch.

As far as Giolito goes, despite him only allowing four home runs to lefties this year, his advanced numbers show a pitcher that can be had with a barrel rate almost at 8% against LHH, with a 46% HardHit rate and a 30% fly-ball rate.

Romy Gonzalez to Hit a Home Run (+450) BetMGM

None of the Red Sox bats look particularly impressive when going off a recent sample size due to them having to face two excellent starting pitchers in Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez the past two games. So, instead of trying to chase recent form, we are instead backing the Red Sox batter that has the best numbers against left-handed pitching on the year in Romy Gonzalez.

He leads the team in ISO rate (.311) and barrel rate (15%) against LHH on the entire season, and has really come on recently. Over the last six weeks against lefties, Gonzalez has a 16% barrel rate, along with an absurd 74% HardHit rate and 42% fly-ball rate. He does have a high strikeout rate of 29%, but that is acceptable considering when he makes contact he barrels it up and puts the ball in the air, two important things.

While Luzardo has generally been good about keeping the ball in the stadium even in the starts he struggles, that came undone last start when he allowed two home runs in five innings pitched against the Angels in his last outing. So, let’s trust Gonzalez to go yard against a pitcher who has no consistency from start to start.

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+575) BetMGM

While Gonzalez has the best numbers against lefties on the year, Rafaela has the second-best numbers on the Red Sox, but can claim to have the best numbers over the last month when looking at a more recent sample size. Over the last 30 days, he leads the Red Sox in ISO rate (.385) and barrel rate (17.24%) against LHP.

Rafaela has not quite returned to this form in the five games since the MLB came back from the All-Star break, but he was phenomenal heading into the break. When looking at the last 30 days, he is tied with the fifth-most HardHits in the MLB (38), with an impressive 10 barrels in this stretch as well.

So, with the nice price at +575 at BetMGM in a good weather situation against a pitcher who does not garner a ton of trust, Rafaela is worth a sprinkle to hit a home run tonight.