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Red Sox vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for July 21st

By Matt Modi

Published: Jul 21st, 2025 · 1:08 PM EDT

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The Phillies have a home series against the Red Sox beginning today, in desperate need of some positive momentum. They have now lost three straight series, after a relatively lifeless 8-2 loss to the Angels yesterday.

Luckily, they have Zack Wheeler on the mound to hopefully stop the skid tonight. Wheeler did get roughed up the last time we saw him before the All-Star break, but the NL Cy Young should be trusted to bounce-back from that. For this article specifically, we will be providing the best MLB home run predictions for Red Sox vs. Phillies Monday, July 21st.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+290) BetMGM

It is always chalk taking Schwarber to go yard, but when he is at home and on the run that he is on, it makes sense to continue to back him. While he did not hit a home run yesterday, he did hit one both on Friday and Saturday, and he still managed two hits above 100 mph exit velocity yesterday, so it is not as though he completely cooled off.

The Phillies will be facing Walker Buehler as the Red Sox starting pitcher, who has been among the worst home run pitchers in all of baseball this year. Of all pitchers that have thrown at least 70 innings, he has the third-worst HR/9 in the entire MLB at 1.96. He has been even worse recently, with a HR/9 of 2.45 over the last five weeks, allowing a home run every 15.33 at-bats.

While he has been worse against righties as opposed to a lefty such as Schwarber, his HR/9 against LHH over the last five weeks of 1.61 is certainly nothing to fear. Buehler has a wide pitch-mix, but the two most common pitches he throws to LHH are the 4-seam fastball and cutter, which Schwarber has fantastic numbers against. On the year, has a .273 ISO rate against the 4-seamer and a .389 ISO against the cutter. He goes yard tonight.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+333) BetMGM

Along with Schwarber, might as well go with another chalk play on the Phillies to hit a home run in Harper, who also hit a home run on Friday (he actually hit two on Friday) and Saturday but did not yesterday. While Schwarber has been fantastic this entire season, Harper has been more hit-or-miss, but has really come on recently.

Over his last seven games, Harper has an absurd eight barrels and 15 HardHits, hitting four home runs in this stretch. This was needed for Harper, who had struggled prior to that after returning from a wrist injury.

Harper obviously enjoys the same benefits as Schwarber does going up against Buehler, with really good head-to-head numbers against him as well. It is a small sample-size, but in three at-bats against Buehler, Harper has a home run and a double.

He also has fantastic numbers against Buehlers pitch-mix of the 4-seam and cutter, with a 15.79% barrel rate, 55.81% HardHit rate and 41.86% fly-ball rate against those two pitches on the year.