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Red Sox vs. Phillies Home Run Props: Back Schwarber, Harper to Go Deep

By Matt Modi

Published: Jul 22nd, 2025 · 11:02 AM EDT

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After winning in one of the most bizarre ways possible yesterday, the Phillies have a chance to win their first series post All-Star break if they can get the job done tonight. They will have a great opportunity to do so with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, who has been phenomenal pretty much the entirety of this season. They should also have the advantage over the Red Sox starting pitcher Richard Fitts, AKA Dick Fitts.

Only one home run was hit in that game yesterday, which also happened to be the very first batter of the game. That does mean we were not able to get any of our two home run predictions to come through yesterday, so let’s try to have a better day today. Please read below for our best MLB home run predictions for Red Sox vs. Phillies tonight.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+260) BetMGM

Two players on the Phillies had multiple HardHits yesterday, and one of those was Kyle Schwarber, who had three. All three of them were 100+ mph exit velocity, with two of them put in the air. He could not quite get the launch angle right on any of those three for them to be real home run threats, but it does show that Schwarber had a good day at the plate yesterday despite not coming through with a home run.

Schwarber hit a home run on Friday and Saturday post All-Star break, so we are getting him in the midst of a solid run at the plate.

As far as the pitching matchup goes, Richard Fitts has struggled with the long ball all year. He has only thrown 33 innings, but his HR/9 of 1.87 would be the worst in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. His barrel rate of 10.7% would be tied for the 10th-worst in the MLB, showing a pitcher that has not been unlucky to allow those kinds of home run numbers.

He has admittedly been worse against righties as opposed to a lefty such as Schwarber, but his numbers against lefties are still not good enough to the point where Schwarber should be completely avoided, as Schwarber crushes Fitts’ pitch-mix. Fitts predominantly throws 4-seam fastballs (50% of the time), sliders (25%) and curveballs (20%) to lefties, and Schwarber has a 12% barrel rate, 61% HardHit rate and 41% fly-ball rate against that pitch-mix from RHP on the year.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+360) BetMGM

After struggling for a couple weeks after returning from a wrist injury, Harper has been fantastic over his last eight games. He has nine barrels, 18 HardHits in these games, slashing a .389 average, .972 slugging and 1.436 OPS. He has an absurd 13 extra-base hits in this stretch, and managed to stay hot at the plate yesterday. That other batter on the Phillies with multiple HardHits? That would be Bryce Harper, who also had three HardHits, all three of which were also over 100+ mph exit velocity.

This hot stretch at the plate was much needed for Harper, who is clearly locked in at the plate. He is also typically better at home in the comforts of the hitter-friendly Phillies home stadium, with all of his numbers from average to ISO rate and OPS better at home than away.

One advantage that Harper also has over Fitts is his ability to hit 4-seamers. Even as Harper has been hit-or-miss this year, he has a barrel rate of 16%, HardHit rate of 55.56% and fly-ball rate of 47% against 4-seamers from RHP. Those numbers look even better over the last month as opposed to the entire season, albeit on a small sample size of only nine tracked at-bats.

Harper has also hit the slider well this year, with a 13% barrel rate and 50% HardHit & fly-ball rate.